Picking & Grinning: UFC Live 6 Main Card

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Sherdog.com staff and contributors put their reputations on the line with bold predictions for the UFC Live 6 main card, which airs live on the Versus network at 9 p.m. ET/6 p.m. PT on Saturday from the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C.

UFC Bantamweight Championship
Dominick Cruz vs. Demetrious Johnson

Jordan Breen: Johnson is a brilliant young talent, who has shown massive skill gains from fight-to-fight-to-fight. All of this bodes well, not just for his future as a great MMA fighter but for when the UFC opens the doors of its 125-pound class; he will likely land in an immediate contender’s role. However, taking on the much longer, rangier Cruz -- a man who himself is improving and refining his style from fight-to-fight -- he’ll be relegated to standing on the outside, eating liberal jabs, low kicks and whatever “The Dominator” throws at him. Cruz’s combination of speed and skill isn’t insurmountable, and Johnson might even have success stuffing some of his takedowns. However, just as it did in the Urijah Faber fight at UFC 132, the consistent pace of Cruz, combined with his ability to recover from whatever damage he suffers, likely means we’re looking at another wide-margin, 25-minute decision for the 135-pound ace.

Tristen Critchfield: This will be a good, high-energy fight to show on free TV to continue the introduction of the bantamweight division to a larger audience. Johnson hasn’t seen striking of Cruz’s caliber, as the champion lands from odd angles with his unorthodox style. “Mighty Mouse’s” best chance might lie in his ability to keep the bout moving at an ultra-frenetic pace. Even then, Johnson could have trouble, because Cruz was able to handle the pressure from Faber, a stronger opponent who had moved down from 145 pounds. Johnson still looks like the future flyweight champion, but capturing the bantamweight belt looks like a difficult task. In the end, Cruz frustrates Johnson and takes home an entertaining decision.

Brian Knapp: Cruz is MMA’s Rubik’s cube. A supremely conditioned and fine-tuned mixed martial artist, his victory over Faber proved he had arrived. I see him puzzling Johnson, an undersized bantamweight, with his height, reach and variety, mixing in takedowns with his unorthodox strikes. Cruz takes another decision and does so without much trouble.

Todd Martin: I see this as a lot closer fight than the long odds suggest. Cruz’s speed kickboxing is a tricky puzzle to solve, but Johnson may be even quicker than the champion with lightning-quick takedowns. Neither man has much power, so this is likely to be a back-and-forth struggle. I think it’s going to end up in a close decision, with takedowns and control being weighed against superior striking. Cruz ultimately gets the nod.

Heavyweights
Pat Barry vs. Stefan Struve

Martin: This has a Pride Fighting Championships freak show fight feel to it, and I say that in a loving way. Barry is going to have one heck of a time trying to reach Struve’s questionable chin, which is where his excellent leg kicks will come into play. Struve isn’t going to want to get close enough to go for a takedown, meaning Barry’s still dubious ground game is relatively safe. He can fire leg kicks and wait for Struve to get close enough to eat some big punches. Barry wins via knockout.

Tomasz Marciniak: This is fight that is not only a contrast of height but also of gaping holes in each of the fighters’ skillsets. If Barry can land a clean shot on Struve, he’ll probably knock him out; if he gets taken down by “The Skyscraper,” he’ll probably tap out. It’s a coin toss, but I’ll side with the Dutchman here to get the fight to the ground and tap out the American.

Lutfi Sariahmed: I think this time Barry gets it right. His last time out against Cheick Kongo, he didn’t finish the fight, but what can you really fault him on there? He was at a big size disadvantage then, too, and still managed to put the Frenchman down and nearly finish the bout. Credit Kongo for having the chin he needed and persevering. Barry will once more be at a size disadvantage but clearly he has the power to put down Struve. Remember, Struve was in all sorts of trouble against Dennis Stojnic. The question is if Barry can avoid Struve’s ground game. Yes, I know Struve’s ground game consists of a triangle choke and little else, but Barry can’t risk it. His striking is better, and I think he can wrap it up this time around.

Welterweights
Anthony Johnson vs. Charlie Brenneman

Freddie DeFreitas: It’s hard to bet against Brenneman, but with the wrestling just about even and the edge in strength going the way of Johnson, expect “Rumble” to keep this fight standing and attempt to send Brennemen’s head into the second row of seats. If Johnson is unsuccessful in that regard, he’ll gut out the decision win over “The Spaniard.”

Rob King: Johnson is obviously going to have a huge size advantage in this fight, and I don’t think Brenneman can get inside of his long limbs to score enough takedowns to win. Neither guy has amazing wrestling, and Johnson has the clear advantage on the feet. A win for either guy really bumps him up in the welterweight rankings, and while I really like Brenneman and wanted to pick him as an upset special, I just can’t do it. At some point in this fight, Johnson is going to land a heavy blow and finish this fight.

Sariahmed: Brenneman is not a dumb man. I say this because he knows what we all know. Johnson has some scary power in his hands, but he cannot stop a takedown. Brenneman’s wrestling is pretty strong, and it’s a big reason why he beat Rick Story. If Brenneman decides to stand and trade with Johnson, he’s needlessly playing with fire. Why risk the knockout there when he can take down Johnson again and again and again and again and again. Brenneman will beat Johnson and continue the run that started with the big win over Story.

Marciniak: Brenneman’s wrestling is translating really well in MMA, and I expect him to put Johnson on the defensive. “Rumble” is a good takedown artist, but I feel his defensive wrestling is untested. If Brenneman can avoid the big strikes and take down Johnson, he will have success here, as “Rumble,” with his gas tank, is unlikely to stage a round three comeback, a la Story. Brenneman wins by decision.

Lightweights
Matt Wiman vs. Mac Danzig

Tony Loiseleur: I’m really looking forward to this since both men have a score to settle from the botched finish of their first bout. That said, I think Wiman is still the favorite here. Wiman’s game is one in which he’s able to pressure his opponent on the feet or canvas until the final horn for the decision -- or until they finally crack, giving him the technical knockout or submission. He may not be as sharp on the feet as Danzig, but he should be serviceable and more than a match on the ground. Danzig is also susceptible to forceful grapplers, which bodes well for Wiman. Even if he catches another guillotine choke or some other submission attempt this time, the onus will be on Danzig to escape and will, of course, be chalked up as effective offense for Wiman. If Danzig can keep it on the feet and potshot Wiman for the full 15 minutes, he can win the decision. However, I like Wiman’s smash game a little better than Danzig’s chances, even with his recent crushing of Joe Stevenson.

Breen: The only reason this fight is happening again is because referee Yves Lavigne screwed up the finish the first time. Wiman was on his way to victory and probably will be here. Wiman remains one of the UFC’s 155-pound wildcards -- a fighter who, with little fanfare, can show up and make 15 minutes of hell for an elite opponent. Danzig is not at that level and will probably find himself stuck to the fence and on the mat courtesy of Wiman’s aggressive boxing and wrestling. Look for Wiman to earn a workmanlike decision, but if he can find another submission, here’s hoping the ref doesn’t screw it up.

Critchfield: Many people thought Wiman beat Dennis Siver in his last Octagon appearance; Siver won two close rounds, while Wiman dominated a single frame. Here, Wiman draws an opponent who can relate to feeling cheated. At UFC 115, Danzig was still fighting a choke applied by Wiman when the bout was abruptly called in the first round. Danzig has since rebounded with a knockout win over Stevenson, though that victory has lost some of its luster. Expect Wiman to press the action and look for takedowns. From there, the Oklahoman will utilize his solid ground-and-pound and grind out a decision.

DeFreitas: I almost resorted to using a magic eight ball, as this rematch offers me very little in the way of excitement. Yes, their first encounter ended in controversy, but for some inexplicable reason, I find myself utterly disinterested. Regardless, a pick must be made, and referring to a magic eight ball is extremely unprofessional. Tails: Wiman.

Lightweights
Yves Edwards vs. Rafaello Oliveira

Knapp: One has to wonder how Edwards will respond from his brutal knockout loss to Sam Stout in June. At 34, he is nearly 60 fights into a lengthy mixed martial arts career that has left him with plenty of wear and tear. This one boils down to whether or not Edwards can remain standing, as Oliveira’s top game could prove problematic. Experience paves the way for the American Top Team veteran here, as Edwards sprawls and strikes his way to a decision.

Martin: Oliveira probably didn’t deserve another shot in the UFC’s deepest division after running his UFC record to 1-3 in May, but he helped out the promotion by taking that fight on short notice. Edwards isn’t a world beater at this stage of this career, but I think he’s the better striker and has enough of a ground game to pick up a decision win.

Marciniak: As was shown in the Stout fight, Edwards’ durability has begun to wane, but I don’t think Oliveira possesses the kind of power needed to detach the Bahamian from consciousness. Edwards should outpoint the Brazilian in the stand-up and avoid his takedowns en route to victory.

King: Edwards is one of the good guys in this sport, but, unfortunately, he is getting a little long in the tooth. His last meaningful win was probably six years ago. Oliveira is not a great fighter by any means, but he is better than Edwards at this point in time. We’re not going to see a thundering knockout of Edwards like we did against Stout, but I think Oliveira does enough to take a decision. Edwards has a chance at a Hail Mary submission, but I don’t see it happening.

2011 Picking & Grinning Standings
Jordan Breen: 140-59
Tristen Critchfield: 138-61
Brian Knapp: 137-62
Todd Martin: 136-63
Tomasz Marciniak: 134-65
Freddie DeFreitas: 132-67
Guilherme Pinheiro: 132-67
Rob King: 131-68
Lutfi Sariahmed: 130-69
Tony Loiseleur: 127-72