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UFC 100 Primer: St. Pierre-Alves Red Ink

Thiago Alves has won seven bouts in a row, the last three against legitimate top-10 competition. Were it not for the traumatic evening against Matt Serra, Georges St. Pierre might now be holding the record for most consecutive wins in the Octagon. The point? That the No. 1 and No. 2 men in a division are fighting, both in their primes. And that’s not as typical as you’d think.

Unlike most elite mixed martial artists who can do everything well but are legendary at nothing, St. Pierre performs at altitude levels in every facet of the game: He’s very good at being very good. Despite that reputation, he is now essentially a wrestler, planting B.J. Penn, Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck on their backs and then pushing in noses. If St Pierre wants to take you down, your counter-argument had better involve a bat.

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This is bad news for Alves, who has shown that he can be controlled on the mat. He’s big for the 170-pound class, but so is St. Pierre. And he hasn’t seen a fourth or fifth round. That could be a big problem.

Striking: Alves seems to pack either more power or better aim: He’s knocked more people for a loop standing than St. Pierre has.

Canvas: Alves has never had much use for his black belt in jiu-jitsu: his lone submission win was years ago. He has also never had anyone as strong or as agile as St. Pierre take a shot at him: The effect may prove disillusioning.

What It Means: A win for St. Pierre virtually cleans out the welterweight division -- until Jake Shields arrives. While guys like Mike Swick and Martin Kampmann vie for the public’s backing, GSP might consider using the rest of 2009 to prepare for a long-rumored catch bout with Anderson Silva in 2010. If the UFC isn’t interested in capsizing one champion, then the winner here should probably face Swick -- though in a fight no one is really screaming for.

Third-Party Investor: The UFC, which could see unbelievable business develop by pitting two of the anointed “pound for pound” greats against one another in Silva and St. Pierre.

Who Wins: St. Pierre. Alves will tire resisting the takedowns, and GSP will capitalize in later rounds.
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