Preview: UFC 303 ‘Pereira vs. Prochazka 2’

Featherweights

#14 FW | Diego Lopes (24-6, 3-1 UFC) vs. #3 FW | Brian Ortega (16-3, 8-3 UFC)

ODDS: Lopes (-135), Ortega (+114)

The big theme of this reshuffled UFC 303 card is that it pays to be available, and Lopes has cashed in on that in a big way. A Brazilian by birth who has placed roots in Mexico, Lopes was on the verge of a UFC callup for years before finally getting the call in May 2023. The bad news? His debut came in what seemed to be an unwinnable matchup against Movsar Evloev. Even if the fight did end in a clear decision win for Evloev, Lopes made himself known with his performance. An aggressive go-everywhere fighter, Lopes clamped on submission attempt after submission attempt to give Evloev one of the toughest fights of his UFC career. Lopes has never read as a high-ceiling fighter thanks to his aggressive kill-or-be-killed style sometimes working against him, but he has captured lightning in a bottle since the loss to Evloev. He has swarmed Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini and Sodiq Yusuff within the last year to earn a spot in the UFC’s featherweight rankings and gained enough profile to get a huge opportunity against Ortega.

Ortega’s initial rise through the featherweight ranks was an impressive magic trick of sorts. One of the most potent grapplers in the sport, Ortega had a knack for snatching victory from the hands of defeat with a submission, to the point that he probably didn’t win a round in his six wins prior to his 2018 title shot against Max Holloway. That was where Ortega’s luck finally ran out, as Holloway outclassed him on the feet with little effort. The next five years and change have been particularly inconsistent for “T-City.” Injuries delayed Ortega’s rebound from the Holloway loss to the point that he looked completely unrecognizable in a win over Chan Sung Jung two years later. Beyond having shaved off his signature locks, Ortega got the win on the back of a newly developed striking game. That led Ortega to another title shot, this time against Alexander Volkanovski in a fight where Ortega nearly scored the win with a guillotine choke but accomplished little else. When his next fight against Yair Rodriguez ended in an injury loss, Ortega once again became a forgotten man. After another two-year layoff, Ortega returned for a rematch against Rodriguez that was part disaster and part impressively gritty performance. Ortega rolled his ankle warming up during the fighter introductions, nearly got knocked out in the opening moments and then somehow gutted through things to score a third-round submission in an ugly grind of a fight. It’s a strange one-fight sample for Ortega’s past two years, but it does at least serve as a reminder that he’s one of the toughest outs in the business. That’s really the bet here, as it seems likely that Lopes’ swarming style will get Ortega in trouble early, but it’s hard to imagine the Brazilian finishing the job. It has taken either an injury or a 20-minute beating to finish Ortega in the past, and most of Lopes’ offense figures to lead him into grappling with the Californian, which has never been a winning proposition. This should be entertainingly chaotic, as is true of most Lopes fights. The pick is Ortega via second-round submission.

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Pereira vs. Prochazka
Lopes vs. Ortega
Dolidze vs. Smith
Bueno Silva vs. Chiasson
Garry vs. Page
The Prelims