UFC Live 5 Preview: The Main Card

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Lightweights
Jim Miller (20-2, 9-1 UFC) vs. Benson Henderson (13-2, 1-0 UFC)

The Matchup: In a dynamite elimination bout inside the stacked 155-pound class, virtual mirrors face one another. Both are southpaws, comfortable enough on their feet to bang a bit, with this asset used to set up clinches, transitions and chained takedown attempts. Both have excellent stamina, as well, and the ability to win scrambles is an integral part of their respective attacks.

Miller seems a bit more comfortable standing, and his showing against the heavy-handed but wild Kamal Shalorus was a classic case of fundamentals breaking down a haymaker-crazy aggressor. Miller simply kept tight, drilled one-twos down the middle and broke down Shalorus. One tactic Miller employs consistently well is playing the percentages of standup, knowing what he can and cannot do, before hitting a clinch or takedown attempt.

Henderson, meanwhile, is the heavier hitter but at times seems so reliant on his grappling that when he does something technically correct -- such as a thudding counter leg kick or a solid punch -- one wonders why he does not do it more. His improvement in the standup area for this fight is crucial; if he is relegated to countering and waiting for Miller, it does not necessarily mean he is doomed, but he is the bigger guy and should get off first to initiate action. Judges respond to that, especially in a fight likely to go to the scorecards.

Henderson’s upper-body strength and flexibility are assets, too. He is difficult to stick on the canvas; Miller feasts on opponents who fall prey to his constant offense, implementing relentless pressure and stringing together takedown events that ultimately make them wilt. Envision a back-and-forth fight with extended clinching against the cage, and each guy getting hurt and firing back immediately to show he is not. These are two pitbulls being let off the chain, and when all is said and done, we will all wish it had been a five-rounder.

Henderson is just coming into his own in the standup area, and he showed some improvement against Mark Bocek at UFC 129. Miller has less room for error if he plans to win, as Henderson’s submissions come quick and he is probably stronger in the chest-to-chest tie-ups.

The Pick: Henderson might surprise people here with a submission or decision, but it is important for him to seize the takedown initiative early. In a back-and-forth battle, Henderson gets the edge on the ground en route to a razor-thin decision.

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