Preview: UFC Fight Night 116 ‘Rockhold vs. Branch’

Lightweights

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (9-2) vs. Tony Martin (12-3) The lightweight division is replete with good fighters who are still developing their games, and we have two of them here. Aubin-Mercier is still predominantly a top position grappler, relying on his judo background to buy takedowns from the clinch and then aggressively looking to pass guard, scramble and find a submission. However, in his last outing against Drew Dober, “The Quebec Kid” showed off much improved striking. Though Aubin-Mercier hit the deck in the second round courtesy of a Dober left, it was his own left hand that did most of the talking in the contest, as he repeatedly landed beautiful counters on Dober, busting open his face and dropping him in the first round. Meanwhile, the physically enormous Martin entered the UFC as a rugged, grinding wrestler, but you would never know it while watching him take apart Johnny Case in June, tagging him repeatedly with long, hard jabs and then mixing in right hooks and leg kicks as the fight progressed. Aubin-Mercier does not have Martin’s boxing discipline, but Martin is susceptible to leg kicks, a weapon with which the Canadian can definitely crack. Martin also is a slow starter, which gives Aubin-Mercier the chance to rush into the clinch early before his opponent is rocking and rolling. However, Aubin-Mercier does not necessarily need clean takedowns to prosper here. Even a blown takedown can lead to a scramble where he thrives, giving him the chance to look for a choke against an opponent with a history of exposing his neck. Aubin-Mercier by submission is the pick.

Heavyweights

Anthony Hamilton (15-6) vs. Daniel Spitz (5-1): This one is not for the technique snobs. The 6-foot-7 Spitz has some power in his hands but is awkward and flimsy in the standup, which was shown in great measure in his UFC debut in March. Brit Mark Godbeer smacked him around the Octagon, tearing him up with punches, kicks and knees from just about every feasible range. Really, Spitz is at his best as a grappler, as he is surprisingly slick on the ground, especially for a man so large. However, he may not want to roll around too long with Hamilton, who uses his cinderblock-sized fists to dish out critical damage when he is on top of his opponents. On the feet, Hamilton is lumbering, throwing every strike with maximum power, almost to the point of parody. When combined with a mediocre chin -- plus his being a heavyweight -- that is a cause for concern. Spitz will need to catch the “Freight Train” barreling in and hurt him, but for all his height, setting and maintaining the striking range is not one of Spitz’s skills. The Sikjitsu product showed he can absorb damage against Godbeer, so he may hear the final bell, but whether standing or on top, Hamilton has more bone-crushing power. If Spitz tries to open up his guard and use his underrated submission game, he may wind up on the business end of a nasty ground-and-pound stoppage.

Middleweights

Uriah Hall (12-7) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (19-2) : Talk about a contrast in styles. Since he destroyed Adam Cella with a spinning hook kick on “The Ultimate Fighter 17,” Hall has been noted for his flashy, unpredictable, jaw-dropping offense. However, since he faltered to Kelvin Gastelum in that season’s final, MMA fans have also become well-acquainted with an enigmatic personality that seems to fuel his frustrating, inconsistent output in the cage. Meanwhile, Jotko is a southpaw bread-and-butter boxer without much panache, but he is highly effective at using his jab and long crosses to control the distance and pace of his fights. The tricky Pole covers the gap quickly getting into the clinch, where he is an adroit dirty boxer and has great takedowns from the body lock. In his last fight, he probably deserved the nod over David Branch, who is headlining this card. As Gegard Mousasi found out, Hall can spring to life out of nowhere and destroy even a defensively savvy fighter with video game-type strikes; “Prime Time” has a chance to make a highlight reel out of anybody. However, Jotko is exactly the sort of responsible, well-rounded fighter that can exploit Hall’s often languid style and iffy gas tank. Look for Jotko to box just long enough to get into the clinch, force Hall to carry his weight and then plunk him on the mat, where he will set about pressuring, punching and passing. It is possible Jotko runs his opponent out of steam entirely and punches him out from the top, but Hall does not lack for toughness, even when he is stuck on bottom. Expect a Jotko win on points.

Lightweights

Gilbert Burns (11-2) vs. Jason Saggo (12-3): Burns and Saggo have both recently reinforced their standup, becoming more effective at using their striking to set up quality takedowns and allowing them to put their fantastic grappling games on display. Saggo’s hands still lack behind the rest of his skills but he is a highly effective kicker, which could serve him well if he can circle, preserve the distance and take whacks at Burns, who will be charging in behind heavy punches looking to tackle Saggo to the mat. The grappling exchanges here should be exciting, with Burns’ mixture of explosive, lithe guard passing and submission threats and Saggo’s tricky, sticky scrambling and guard work. Unfortunately for the Canadian, grappling is what he does best, and Burns bests him there. “Durinho” is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion, and Saggo likely does not have the defensive wrestling to stay off of his back. As a result, he will be forced to play a defensive guard against a powerhouse technician like Burns. If the Brazilian does not earn the tap, he will dominate positionally on the floor en route to a unanimous decision.