Preview: UFC Fight Night 143 ‘Cejudo vs. Dillashaw’

Lightweights

Gregor Gillespie (12-0) vs. Yancy Medeiros (15-5)

ODDS: Gillespie (-525), Medeiros (+415)

It is hard to say what more Gillespie could do to prove himself as a prospect, yet it also feels like he is going to suffer a one-sided loss in his near future. A former NCAA wrestling champion, Gillespie made his UFC debut with a ton of hype and has lived up to it every step of the way. He has also done it in exciting fashion, fighting like an absolute maniac. While the grappling is obviously the main event when it comes to his skills, “The Gift” sets it up by charging in and throwing heat before going in for a takedown. If a Gillespie fight is not a one-sided domination, it turns into an all-out war, with Gillespie often taking one or two clean shots to the face and using that as an opportunity to dive for his opponent’s hips. It has worked every time out, but given that Gillespie is an undersized lightweight who could easily make 145 pounds, there is the sense that Gillespie is playing with fire and could meet the man either stout or durable enough to take advantage of his lack of defense. Medeiros could be that man.

This marks Medeiros’ return to 155 pounds, which seems like a bit of an odd move. Medeiros spent a few years on the UFC roster as a fun-if-mediocre lightweight before moving up to welterweight and going on a bit of a run. Being comparatively faster and able to throw more volume worked wonders for Medeiros’ aggressive style, and a lesser weight cut helped his already-strong durability. That was most apparent in his comeback win over Alex Oliveira, a 2017 “Fight of the Year” contender that devolved into a wild brawl before Medeiros broke Oliveira’s nose. That earned Medeiros a main-event bout against Donald Cerrone that ended in a knockout loss, but rather than try to pick up where he left off, Medeiros returns from an injury layoff to try and recapture lightweight glory.

At first blush, there is logic to this being Gillespie’s next test -- and hopefully last before he starts facing ranked competition. Medeiros is a durable fighter coming down from welterweight who has knockout power, which should combine into a skill set that could give the aggressive and undersized Gillespie some trouble. Digging deeper into this fight, that all starts to fall apart. For one thing, as offensively potent as he might be, Medeiros’ defense is absolutely terrible when it comes to both striking and grappling, so he should be a sitting duck to eat all of the offense that Gillespie throws at him. Compounding that, the size difference is not nearly as big as you would think, and with Medeiros reportedly adopting a plant-based diet that may allow him to make featherweight, that only further seems to neutralize what should be one of the Hawaiian’s big advantages. Medeiros has a puncher’s chance, but the likeliest scenario is that this looks a ton like Gillespie’s last few fights. The pick is Gillespie via second-round submission.

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