UFC News & FeaturesLight Heavyweights
#9 LHW | Nikita Krylov (27-8, 8-6 UFC) vs. #11 LHW | Paul Craig (15-4-1, 7-4-1 UFC)ODDS: Krylov (-175), Craig (+145)
Can Craig make a run towards title contention? The affable Scotsman has been a fun fighter during his time on the UFC roster, but he always figured to be more of a curiosity than any sort of actual contender. His aggressive, submission-heavy style was enough of a change-up to catch some of the shallower fighters on the roster, but the sport seemed to have evolved past the point where such a reliance on submissions would be a consistently winning strategy. Craig even likely would not be on the roster if not for a miracle win over Magomed Ankalaev in 2018, when “Bearjew” was able to snap his losing streak with a desperation triangle choke that earned a tap in the literal last second of the bout. Craig has added some striking that is a bit more effective than you would expect, mostly through his own persistent confidence, but it is still a surprise to see that he is now riding a five-fight unbeaten streak, with the potential to crack into the light heavyweight Top 10 with another victory. Krylov’s weak regional level of competition and messy style made him a bit of a meme upon his UFC debut in 2013, but “The Miner” has rounded into a shockingly effective talent. A cut down to light heavyweight unlocked a lot of his athleticism, and his combination of durability and aggression has been able to overwhelm most of his opponents. After leaving the UFC for about a year and a half, mostly to chase higher paydays on the Russian scene, Krylov has established himself as a tough out against all manners of competition in the UFC, getting ugly fights out of Ankalaev and Glover Teixeira in losing efforts. This should be a mess in all the best ways—both men figure to be aggressive—but it remains unclear how things will play out in the end. Krylov is the more well-rounded fighter and the better athlete, so he should be able to dictate where this fight takes place, but it is unclear if he has the mindfulness to try and keep this standing or if he will just engage Craig on his terms and dive into some wild grappling exchanges. Krylov can be caught defensively unaware and does tire late, so there is a solid chance that Craig is able to survive until the Ukrainian hands him the opening for a submission. However, Krylov is at a level of skill and athleticism where it is hard to pull the trigger in Craig’s favor. Plus, half the fun is being surprised when Craig manages to pull a win out. The pick is Krylov by decision.
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