Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Henderson vs. Thatch’

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WELTERWEIGHTS

Neil Magny (13-3, 6-2 UFC) vs. Kiichi Kunimoto (18-5-2, 3-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: This is a strange fight. Magny went 5-0 in 2014 and rightfully expected a name opponent. Instead, he gets Kunimoto, who by all rights lost his last fight against Richard Walsh. It will be hard to deny the winner a shot at a legitimate top-15 opponent, and this has the potential to be an interesting matchup.

Magny has developed into a well-rounded and reasonably dangerous fighter. His game is predicated on his ridiculous length, and it flows fluidly from phase to phase. He is essentially an out-fighter who prefers to operate at distance, flicking a crisp jab and potent right hand along with an occasional low kick. If he overshoots the target, he slips into the clinch, where his long limbs give him great leverage on trips and throws. Magny’s defensive wrestling has been solid if not outstanding, but offensively, he shoots a sound double in addition to his clinch takedowns. He works quickly from top position, passing guard with aplomb and generating great power in his ground strikes, and he scrambles well.

Kunimoto is a durable grinder with some pop in his hands. While he is tremendously hittable and throws little volume, his jabs and crosses pack a fair amount of power. His real strength lies in the clinch and wrestling phases, however. He excels at pinning his opponent against the fence and chipping away with his dirty boxing while attempting the occasional double-leg. If he can find his way to the ground, Kunimoto has real skills: He passes quickly, scrambles well and has a nose for the submission in transition. The problem is the difficulty in getting in there with an unimposing takedown game.

BETTING ODDS: Magny -465, Kunimoto +370

THE PICK: This is Magny’s fight to lose. Kunimoto is limited, and the American’s rapid skill improvements and physical gifts should give him an edge in practically every phase of the fight. I expect Magny to walk Kunimoto toward the fence while working behind his jab and to mix up takedowns and clinch work against the cage with active punching combinations. Magny by wide decision is the pick.

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