Preview: UFC on Fox 17 ‘Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2’

Lightweights

Michael Johnson (16-9) vs Nate Diaz (17-10)

THE MATCHUP: How do you predict a Diaz fight? Four years ago, he seemed to be coming into his own, battering Donald Cerrone and then tapping perennial action fighter and submission specialist Jim Miller. He appeared to be topping his older brother’s formula, blending together aggressive jiu-jitsu and awkward, rangy boxing to deadly effect. Then Diaz fell short against then-champion Benson Henderson, and the train seemed to roll right off the tracks.

Johnson represents a definite step back from Rafael dos Anjos, the last man to beat the Cesar Gracie protégé, but “The Menace” is still fulfilling his potential the way Diaz stopped doing after the Henderson loss. Under Henri Hooft, Johnson has turned himself into a ferocious volume striker, hammering away with basic, reliable punches and forcing his opponents to retreat. His attack can be somewhat predictable, perhaps because his natural inclination is to box and not to pressure, but he has a bottomless well of stamina from which to draw and no lack of determination -- ideal qualities for any style of fighting.

Granted, the last man to accept a striking match with Diaz was Cerrone, and Diaz set the record for significant strikes in a three-round contest, connecting with an incredible 82 percent of his 314 attempts. Johnson is not as hittable as Cerrone, but it would be unwise for him to see this as a fight against a washed-up opponent. If he comes prepared -- and there is no reason to suspect that he will not -- Johnson will use as much variety as he can on the feet, throwing body punches and kicks, and looking for opportunistic takedowns to break Diaz’s rhythm.

THE ODDS: Johnson (-453), Diaz (+357)

THE PICK: As hard as it is to count out Diaz, it is even harder to pick him over Johnson. Barring a questionable decision against Beneil Dariush, Johnson would currently be riding a five-fight winning streak, while Diaz’s last fight saw him show up woefully unprepared and five pounds overweight. Johnson wins by unanimous decision.

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