UFC Live 6 Preview: The Main Card

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Welterweights
Charlie Brenneman (14-2, 3-1 UFC) vs. Anthony Johnson (9-3, 6-3 UFC)

The Matchup: While the top tier of the welterweight division enjoys compelling matchups later in the month at UFC 137, Brenneman and Johnson square off for the right to jump up a notch in the rankings. An impressive win for either guy would make a statement. Vaulted into the welterweight conversation off the heels of his inspiring decision over Rick Story, Brenneman has limited standup and relies on quick takedowns and a fast pace to wear out opponents. With a solid but not great collegiate wrestling pedigree, Brenneman will have to bring more in the standup department for this fight than he has shown previously. Therein lies the tactical rub: Johnson is as offensively imposing and dangerous on the feet as anyone he has ever faced.

Walking around at a muscled 210-plus pounds, Johnson represents the extreme envelope of the weight-cutting game that is a huge factor in MMA, yet barely understood by casual fans considering its vast effects. After hitting 170 on the scales, Johnson rehydrates north of 190 pounds and uses that size and strength to overpower opponents. However, it works both ways for Johnson, who was an accomplished college wrestler himself. It can leave him short of stamina and huffing for air, particularly if he finds himself in a fight where he cannot dictate the action and is forced to exert himself defending attacks.

Simply put, it is exceptionally hard to close the distance on Johnson when he is fresh, and Brenneman’s rush-and-attack style, devoid of technically sound standup, is going to be like hurling over-the-middle fastballs at a designated hitter. Brenneman cannot simply charge early and force a takedown, as Johnson’s sharp strikes and big-time power pose too much of a risk. “The Spaniard” will have to pick his spots, perhaps luring Johnson into unleashing a big combination through which he can secure a tie-up or takedown in the transition between blows.

It becomes an extremely dangerous fight for Brenneman if he cannot get the early takedown. However, after a round and a half or so -- provide he can secure a couple takedowns -- Johnson’s massive weight cut could begin to work against him. Will Brenneman be able to survive intact without getting nailed with a significant shot? Can he hold down Johnson and tire him enough to outwork him over the second half of the bout? Johnson maintains that he has taken a more disciplined approach to cutting weight, and he looked good in three one-sided, wrestling-heavy rounds against Dan Hardy at UFC Fight Night 24. The real test will be in seeing if he can do it with someone as capable and scrappy as Brenneman riding him.

This fight is pivotal for both men, with the winner vaulting into the “New School” of welterweight contenders that includes the likes of Carlos Condit, Jake Ellenberger and Rory MacDonald. Since rounds start standing and Brenneman has shown little finishing ability against UFC competition, the only way he wins is by hitting key takedowns on Johnson and hoping he fatigues. That means too many chances for Johnson to land round-winning and fight-changing strikes. One key element missing in Brenneman’s decision over Story was the complete absence of viable ground-and-pound; he will need that as tool to wear out Johnson.

The Pick: There are too many factors that have to line up perfectly for Brenneman here. Johnson will definitely have a fight on his hands, but he will be too strong standing. Plus, he has the ability to take down Brenneman, as well. Johnson wins by third-round knockout.

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