Preview: UFC 287 ‘Pereira vs. Adesanya 2’

Welterweights

Kevin Holland (23-9, 10-6 UFC) vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-6, 11-5 UFC)

ODDS: Holland (-245), Ponzinibbio (+205)

Holland has not lost much in terms of profile since his move down to 170 pounds in 2022, but it will be fascinating to see what headway “Trailblazer” can continue to make in his new division. Holland was an entertaining fighter even before his breakout in 2020, but his approach turned out to be the perfect fit for the UFC’s schedule at the height of the coronavirus pandemic. Holland’s propensity for trash talking stuck out in an empty arena, and his willingness to take fights allowed him to keep stepping in and racking up wins amid matchmaking chaos. A win over Ronaldo Souza to cap off the year figured to set up Holland as a potential middleweight contender in 2021, but things instead came back to earth for a winless calendar year. Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori each exposed his lack of defensive wrestling, and a fight against Kyle Daukaus quickly ended in a no contest. Holland then announced his surprising cut down to welterweight, and it is impressive that he has successfully pulled off the move off; at 6-foot-3 with an 81-inch reach, Holland is absolutely gigantic for his new division. For someone who was always impressively creative and crafty at middleweight, it has also been a surprise to see Holland’s technical depth mostly go out the window since he downshifted. Wins over Alex Oliveira and Tim Means mostly saw Holland essentially brute force his way to a win through pressure and relying on his size and athleticism. That eventually came back to bite him in his last fight—a headlining loss against Stephen Thompson where “Wonderboy” eventually picked him apart. He gets an attempt at a rebound here in short order against Ponzinibbio.

Ponzinibbio has avoided becoming a tragic case, but it is still a bit hard not to wonder about the different routes that the Argentinian’s career could have gone. After a middling start to his UFC career, “The Argentine Dagger” reeled off win after win, culminating in an electric 2018 victory over Neil Magny that capped off the UFC’s debut in his home country. It figured to be a launchpad into some big things for an unlikely contender, but instead, it now looks to be the peak of Ponzinibbio’s career, mostly due to a subsequent staph infection that nearly ended his career and kept him out of action for over two years. Ponzinibbio was understandably flat upon his return—a shockingly quick knockout loss to Jingliang Li, but he has managed to rebound and regain some of his form in the years since. Ponzinibbio’s durability has not betrayed him since the Li fight, which has allowed Ponzinibbio to make his hay as a slow-starting striker who can find his way into any fight. Ponzinibbio clearly builds over time when given three rounds—a point clearly proven in his December win over Alex Morono, which was a clear loss up until the point that the American Top Team mainstay found a late knockout. This could be an excellent dogfight assuming it makes its way into later rounds, given the defensive openings that Ponzinibbio figures to be able to exploit, but the call is that things will not get that far. Even with Ponzinibbio’s durability holding up in recent fights, he does not look to be able to halt what could be a hot start for Holland that sees him pour on a ton of offense. The pick is Holland via first-round knockout.

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Pereira vs. Adesanya
Burns vs. Masvidal
Yanez vs. Font
Holland vs. Ponzinibbio
Rosas Jr. vs. Rodriguez
The Prelims