Preview: UFC 291 ‘Poirier vs. Gaethje 2’

Lightweights

Bobby Green (29-14-1, 10-9-1 UFC) vs. Tony Ferguson (25-8, 15-6 UFC)

ODDS: Green (-410), Ferguson (+310)

It has been a hard fall for Ferguson. It is worth remembering just how outstanding “El Cucuy” was in his rise through the ranks, since Ferguson never quite got his big moment in the sun. After his recovery from a broken arm in 2012, Ferguson went on to win 12 straight fights against a rough level of competition, yet never fought for the undisputed lightweight title. Unlike most who find themselves in a similar spot, Ferguson had the type of fight style to get the benefit of the doubt as an athletic whirlwind of violence who was able to either snatch a finish out of the chaos or simply outpace his opponent. However, there was always something standing in Ferguson's way for him to get that title shot. Conor McGregor’s prime coincided with Ferguson’s, and the Irishman essentially held up the title picture due to his various whims. Then there were the attempts to book Ferguson against Khabib Nurmagomedov in the UFC’s most cursed matchup—a fight that fell apart for various reasons at least half a dozen times. The last attempted booking of Ferguson-Nurmagomedov was scuttled by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020; and the UFC’s return instead saw Ferguson take on Justin Gaethje in a fight for an interim belt. That was the moment when Ferguson’s long career of wars finally caught up with him. Things slowly turned into more and more of a one-sided beating by Gaethje ahead of a fifth-round stoppage, and Ferguson’s next two fights saw him get outwrestled by Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush in particularly flat performances. At the very least, Ferguson’s two fights in 2022 against Michael Chandler and Nate Diaz saw him show some signs of life, even though he eventually got finished in each one. The magic just is not there anymore for Ferguson, and Green is the latest opponent looking to score a win over the former contender.

Green has had his own winding road to success, as his breakout 2020 campaign seemed to pay back nearly a dozen years of hard luck in a career that saw him work his way up the ladder. A Strikeforce alum who came to the UFC in 2013, Green got off to a hot start with the promotion before seeing his career derailed after a 2014 loss to Edson Barboza. Injuries and personal tragedies led to “King” taking long layoff after long layoff, and judges refused to reward his defensively slick and counter-heavy style, leading him to lose some controversial decisions at crucial times. Green has finally been healthy since 2020, and the UFC’s matchmaking chaos during the pandemic allowed him to repeatedly step in and score victories, in turn finally earning him some notice as a fan favorite. Green has fallen just short of contender status, as attempts to break into the rankings against Rafael Fiziev, Islam Makhachev and Drew Dober all fell short, but he remains a tough out for everyone outside the upper tiers at lightweight—a category that includes Ferguson at this point. Green’s style does not particularly lend itself to blowouts, and his tendency to let opponents lead may allow Ferguson to find some early success. With that said, this should be Green’s fight in the end, as he works his way into a rhythm while Ferguson figures to fade. The pick is Green via decision.

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Poirier vs. Gaethje
Blachowicz vs. Pereira
Thompson vs. Pereira
Green vs. Ferguson
Holland vs. Chiesa
The Prelims