Preview: UFC on Fox 27 ‘Jacare vs. Brunson 2’

Welterweight

Frank Camacho (21-5) vs. Drew Dober (18-8)

ODDS: Dober (-160), Camacho (+140)

ANALYSIS:: While Camacho-Dober may seem like an odd choice for a Fox main card, “Frank the Crank” has clearly made an impression on his promoter after racking up “Fight of the Night” honors in his first two Octagon appearances. However, Camacho missed weight for his November brawl with Damien Brown, so now he is headed back to 170 pounds. Fortunately for him, he is facing a fighter in Dober who is also returning from a 155-pound run. Camacho will hold considerable physical advantages over him, including two inches of height and three inches of reach.

While he may be an all-action fighter, Camacho’s electricity often comes at his own expense. He can be a smart, sharp boxer, and he has a clever clinch game and slick grappling. However, he will abandon his fundamentals and start winging wild shots, engendering crazy brawls in which he is liable to be -- and has been -- knocked out. It would be wise for Camacho to use his clinch game to try to put Dober on the floor, as the biggest skill gap anywhere in this fight can be found in Dober’s defensive grappling against Camacho’s aggressive, scrambling jiu-jitsu attack.

That is easier said than done. Since moving to Elevation Fight Team two years ago, Dober has gone 3-1 and really sharpened up his game. His offensive and defensive wrestling has improved considerably, and he is actually sitting down on his punches now, a change which earned him first-round knockouts of Jason Gonzalez and Joshua Burkman.

Camacho has struggled in the past with southpaws, and Dober’s economic, diligent style, as well as his strong counterpunching ability, may prove difficult for him. Dober’s kicking offense is going to find a home at range, and if Camacho begins chasing or charging, Dober will be able to pick him off. Camacho’s going to fight like his shorts are on fire -- that is a given -- but Dober’s cleaner, crisper counters should earn him a decision here in an entertaining affair.

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