Lightweights
#11 LW | Gregor Gillespie (13-0) vs. #10 LW | Kevin Lee (17-5)Advertisement
MMA can turn on a dime, and that has certainly been the case for Lee. Just a year ago, “The Motown Phenom” was firmly entrenched as a top-tier lightweight, but after two setbacks in his last two bouts, he suddenly finds himself looking for answers. Lee was extremely raw when the UFC picked him up back in 2014, which made Al Iaquinta a surprisingly tough initial opponent for such a novice. Lee hung tough in that fight, and from there, the promotion actually brought him along correctly, giving him tough but not dangerous matchups while inching him up the lightweight ladder. There were still setbacks, however. UFC 194 saw Lee suffer a shocking knockout loss to Leonardo Santos, and in retrospect, he could have easily been shown the door had he not gutted through a tough matchup with Efrain Escudero in his next outing. Shortly thereafter, Lee’s game suddenly clicked into place behind his powerful wrestling and submission skills. Even against strong and talented grapplers like Michael Chiesa and Francisco Trinaldo, Lee managed to take over and find his way to a finish. An interim title fight against Tony Ferguson was clearly too much too soon, but after Lee rebounded with a dominant performance over Edson Barboza, the expectation was that the Ferguson fight was somewhere between a learning experience and a bump in the road. However, Lee’s last two losses have been a bit concerning. First, in a rematch against Iaquinta that Lee was expected to win, there was none of the aggressive pressure that Lee showed against Barboza, leading to Iaquinta netting the narrow win; and for what now appears to be a one-off welterweight bout against Rafael dos Anjos, Lee had the absolute opposite problem, staying aggressive and setting such a pace that he eventually wore himself out, even with the theoretical better cardio of a higher weight class. Lee is still just 27, so there is time to figure this all out, but his career suddenly feels like it is in the middle of a disappointing funk. In the short-term, a win would be crucial, not only because it would get Lee a much-needed victory but because it would prevent him from getting lapped by rising talents like his opponent.
This is the long-awaited first big test for Gillespie, as the adopted Long Islander has done nothing but blow through every challenge presented to him thus far. A standout collegiate wrestler, “The Gift” has managed to leverage that skill into one-sided victory after one-sided victory, resulting in a ton of action if not much in the way of drama. Gillespie applies constant pressure, relying on his chin to see him through adversity while using his lack of size as a sneaky advantage. Whenever Gillespie feels he is taking too much damage, he can quickly get in on his opponent’s hips and start implementing his wrestling game. From there, nobody has been able to match what Gillespie brings to the table. He has been able to chain together takedowns, work for submissions and essentially make his opponent’s life a living hell. Given Gillespie’s willingness to take one to give one, there was always the risk that he would charge right into a prospect loss, but he has managed to make his way to ranked competition unscathed -- a bit of a minor miracle in a division as deep as lightweight. Whenever Gillespie finally suffers his first loss, there will be calls for him to cut down to featherweight, but until then, he might just ride his reckless style all the way to lightweight title contention.
This is an absolutely fascinating fight, if only because Lee might be the first man who can neutralize Gillespie’s wrestling and force the New Yorker into whatever backup plan he has at his disposal. This is also one of those fights that is hard to parse on paper but could immediately become one-sided in practice, since a lot of it depends on who is the first to take initiative and who winds up being the stronger wrestler. At the very least, Gillespie should be the first to try and dictate the terms of the fight. He is pathologically aggressive, and while Lee has shown a willingness to commit to pressure at times, that has been inconsistent enough that it is difficult to rely on. In general, a lot of the things on the fringes favor Gillespie. He has proven to be more durable than Lee, and he is more willing to set and keep a pace, particularly after Lee gassed out so badly in his last bout. That all goes out the window if Lee can win the wrestling exchanges that make up the core of this fight. There is a solid chance that Lee just reverses all of the undefeated wrestler’s takedown attempts and controls this fight as a larger man who knows what he’s doing. However, as long as Gillespie does not find himself running into a brick wall, his winning by decision is the pick.
Continue Reading » ESPN 2 Prelims
Related Articles
