Preview: UFC Fight Night 118 ‘Cerrone vs. Till’

Lightweights

Nasrat Haqparast (8-1) vs. Marcin Held (22-7)

ODDS: Held (-400), Naqparast (+325)

ANALYSIS: After going 11-3 in Bellator MMA, Held has endured one of the most gruesome runs of luck in UFC history, all of it conspiring to lead him to a 0-3 mark. He would have beaten Diego Sanchez in his debut if he had pushed the striking issue. When he did so in his second appearance against Joe Lauzon, he got ripped off by the judges via split decision. Held then dominated Damir Hadzovic for 10 minutes in May before shooting face first into a vicious knee strike. Now, due to a knee injury suffered by his original opponent, Teemu Packalen, he faces short-notice debutante Haqparast. Since losing his December 2012 pro debut, the 22-year-old Naqparast has gone 8-0, all via knockout. Born in Afghanistan, based in Germany and now training out of Kings MMA in Southern California, it will be intriguing to see what striking improvements Naqparast has made while working under Rafael Cordeiro. So far, he has been a one-handed southpaw knockout artist, albeit with a totally devastating, tight overhand left. When he gets top position, he deals out massive damage, though largely with the left again. Held needs to be wary of Naqparast’s power. Despite having such an unorthodox preference for leg lock attempts and scrambles, Held does not typically take a ton of punishment on the floor. The Polish grappler’s much-improved striking should give him the ability to cover the distance and set up takedowns, perhaps preferring to work from the clinch rather than risk shooting into another knee. Held’s grappling game is far beyond anything Naqparast has seen and should allow him to pull off a submission in the first 10 minutes in front of his home country.

Heavyweights

Anthony Hamilton (15-8) vs. Adam Wieczorek (8-1)

ODDS: Wieczorek (-145), Hamilton (+125)

ANALYSIS: Hamilton is playing a dangerous game here. He is 3-6 in the UFC and has lost three in a row, all via first-round stoppage. After he was upset in a mere 24 seconds by Daniel Spitz just four weeks ago, he suggested he was going to retire. He is 37 years old. Yet here he is, taking a fight on less than two weeks’ notice against an athletic, once-beaten Pole in his homeland. Hamilton is surprisingly limber for a 6-foot-5, 260-pound man, capable of throwing nice boxing combinations and even snappy head kicks. He can wrestle adequately, and when he is on top, he is truly a booming ground-and-pounder. However, he is sympathetically slow in the cage, as if covered in wet cement at times, and worse, he is both hittable and “chinny” -- traits that appear to be intensifying with age and wear and tear, as evidenced in the Spitz fight. Wieczorek is not an elite prospect. His striking and wrestling defense are poor; he is exclusively a clinch wrestler; and his takedowns still lack, even from there. However, he is still a solid 6-foot-5 with an athletic heavyweight body and possesses a shockingly lithe, technical bottom game that helps him atone for his mediocre wrestling and take top position. He hits hard with long right hands on the feet, does even more damage as a ground-and-pounder and has beaten quality European talent. Hamilton would be wise to press the wrestling early, but the circumstances surrounding his insertion here are morbid. Wieczorek wins by first-round knockout.

Bantamweights

Brian Kelleher (17-8) vs. Damian Stasiak (10-4)

ODDS: Kelleher (-120), Stasiak (+100)

ANALYSIS: As indicated by both the betting line and the fighters’ UFC records, this is an enigmatic pairing. It is easier to identify weaknesses in these two bantamweights, but they are obviously not poor fighters, so what are their true strengths and how do they jive with what the other will or wants to do? Stasiak is allegedly a karate exponent, but outside of a flashy kick every so often, none of that is present in his game. “Webster” has shown his greatest skills as a sweep-and-submit threat on the ground, while improving his wrestling and consistently forcing that issue, regardless of whether it puts him on the bottom or not. Kelleher comes across as a savvy wrestle-boxer, a bit of a jack of all trades and master of none, yet he shows flashes of submission brilliance, like he did in his UFC debut in June, when he quickly guillotined Iuri Alcantara in under two minutes. He has also made bafflingly bad choices, like he did in his armbar loss to Marlon Vera seven weeks later, as he inside tripped himself right into a beautiful armbar. “Boom Boom” will have the striking and wrestling advantages, but the question becomes whether or not he can he avoid getting snagged on the floor by Stasiak in a lapse of concentration. Kelleher in a competitive decision is the pick here, based on his control of the standup and top position. However, the American’s success is entirely contingent upon him staying alert and not being lulled into Stasiak’s quick and clever sweeps and submissions.

Middleweights

Sam Alvey (31-9) vs. Ramazan Emeev (15-3)

ODDS: Emeev (-150), Alvey (+130)

ANALYSIS: Alvey may not always be a hyperactive character in the cage, but he certainly keeps up the work rate outside of it. This fight, which “Smilin’ Sam” accepted on less than two weeks’ notice, will be Alvey’s seventh in just over 15 months; it is a staggering pace of activity. Unlike rambunctious headliner Donald Cerrone, however, Alvey’s in-cage output nowhere mirrors his charismatic, devil-may-care persona. He lands 3.23 significant strikes per minute while eating 3.27, and though he has become more careful in his recent Octagon outings, Alvey’s southpaw style is now based on backing up, waiting for an opponent to charge and loading up on his lead right hook and big left uppercuts, hoping to intercept and evaporate his oncoming opponents. This plays right into Emeev’s game. The Azerbaijan-born, Dagestan-based freestyle wrestler has a tried-and-true chin. His entire goal is to back his opponents to the fence, throw a quick flurry of strikes, perhaps a clinch knee or two, and then go for the takedown. Alvey is a surprisingly stout takedown defender, turning away 82 percent of the attempts he has faced in the cage, but he willingly puts himself in the environment the Gorets Team fighter needs, all while being an easy target for Emeev’s underrated and surprisingly powerful right hand. Emeev is not likely to pound out Alvey, preferring to methodically chip away on top until he opens up a choke opportunity, which the American is also unlikely to give him. Still, the style matchup, combined with Alvey’s short-notice assignment that includes a 30-pound weight cut in less than 14 days, should give Emeev every advantage he needs to grind away along the cage and win a unanimous verdict.

Last Fights » Early Prelims