Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Holloway vs. Oliveira’

---

Lightweights

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (6-1, 2-1 UFC) vs. Tony Sims (12-2, 1-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: “The Ultimate Fighter: Nations” runner-up Aubin-Mercier draws Colorado’s Sims, who comes in on late notice to replace the injured Chris Wade. Aubin-Mercier is a serious talent, and he has submitted both of his opponents since dropping a decision to Chad Laprise at the show’s finale. Sims made an impression in his short-notice debut in June, viciously knocking out Steve Montgomery in the first round of an entertaining fight.

Aubin-Mercier is a physical specimen with great size, power and athleticism. His background is in judo, and he chains slick trips and throws from the clinch with a more traditional arsenal of well-timed shot takedowns. On the mat, the Montreal native is a killer. He excels at wearing down his opponents with pressure and constant punches from ride positions, and when they attempt to escape, Aubin-Mercier hops on the back. The rear-naked choke is his specialty, and he is at his best forcing his opponents into scrambles in which he is sure to find his way to his favored position. Aubin-Mercier’s striking game is limited but improving, and his speed and power make him more dangerous than his technique suggests. The southpaw’s left kick is lethal; he flings potent forward-moving combinations that bring him into the clinch; and he has developed a nifty step-back counter left. His defense is a liability, however, and he rarely moves his head offline or blocks punches with any effectiveness.

Sims is a former boxer with excellent amateur credentials, and that skill set forms the basis of his MMA game. He moves well at range and switches stances fluidly, darting in and out of range with no fewer than two punches at a time.

He likes to shift punches as he moves forward, which allows him to cover a great deal of distance. Once inside, he counters beautifully in the pocket. Make no mistake, Sims is a seriously dangerous striker with legitimate skills. A wrestler through high school, Sims hits the occasional double-leg as a change of pace and seems to defend takedowns well. From the top, he mostly controls and lands a few ground shots before standing up. We have seen little of the rest of his game, however, and should be wary of rating it too highly in the absence of more information.

BETTING ODDS: Aubin-Mercier (-230), Sims (+190)

THE PICKS: Those odds seem approximately correct, and Sims is a live underdog here. If Aubin-Mercier gets any strange ideas about trying to bang this out on the feet, the combination of Sims’ skill and power and Aubin-Mercier’s porous defense will make this a short night for the Canadian. The more likely scenario involves Sims landing a few shots on the feet and Aubin-Mercier repeatedly taking him down, grinding away and then eventually getting to the back and finishing. The pick is Aubin-Mercier by submission in the second round.

Next Fight » Maryna Moroz vs. Valerie Letourneau