UFC 153 ‘Silva vs. Bonnar’ Preview

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Light Heavyweights

Phil Davis (9-1, 5-1 UFC) vs. Wagner Prado (8-0, 0-0 UFC)

The Matchup: There is not much to learn from the 88 seconds that Davis and Prado spent in the Octagon together at UFC on Fox 4, but we can infer this: Prado is not intimidated by his more well-known opponent. Before an inadvertent eye poke from Davis caused the bout to be declared a no contest, Prado was the aggressor and appeared to clip “Mr. Wonderful” with a right hand. Is that overanalyzing an extremely small sample size? Perhaps, but it is guaranteed that both fighters will also take whatever knowledge they can get from the brief encounter.

In the long run, this fight is more about what improvements Davis has made than anything Prado does. The four-time NCAA All-American wrestler from Penn State University was made to look mechanical and tentative in his UFC on Fox 2 main event showdown with Rashad Evans. Once his wrestling was shut down, Davis had little else to offer the former 205-pound champion. Not everyone is capable of neutralizing Davis in the manner Evans did, but improved standup is crucial to the Alliance MMA product’s overall progression.

Like many Brazilians, Prado has compiled an impressive resume fighting in his homeland. “Caldeirao” does not waste time in the cage; seven of his eight victories have come via knockout, including six in the first round. Prado would prefer spend the majority of the fight standing, but as a Team Nogueira protégé, he should be at least competent on the ground.

It is doubtful that Prado has faced anyone with the wrestling pedigree of Davis, and he must remain composed if he finds himself on his back. Davis’ strength and long frame allow him to control foes on the mat, where he diligently works to pass guard and wields a solid submission game. Davis has a five-inch reach advantage on Prado, so look for him to use kicks to the legs and body to set up his explosive shot.

The Pick: As long as Davis does not make a huge mistake that allows Prado land a fight-altering strike, this is his fight to lose. “Mr. Wonderful” wins via second-round submission.

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