Preview: UFC 209 ‘Woodley vs. Thompson 2’

Heavyweights

Marcin Tybura (14-2) vs. Luis Henrique Barbosa de Oliveira (10-2): Having won his last two UFC bouts in dominant fashion, Oliveira joins the likes of Curtis Blaydes in the category of “fighters who are much better than they appeared in their respective bouts with Francis Ngannou.” At just 23, “KLB” is the youngest heavyweight on the UFC roster by a substantial margin, and his game is developing as quickly as you might expect from an athletic novice. Oliveira is a jiu-jitsu specialist first and foremost, and he is developing a solid takedown game in order to facilitate it, as well as a Cain Velasquez-esque clinch against the fence. Also like Velasquez, Oliveira seems to have excellent stamina for a man his size, and he is more willing than ever to make powerful punches part of his pace-pushing arsenal. Tybura has struggled with wrestlers in the past, but reluctance to engage has consistently been his biggest problem. For years, Tybura was throwing sloppy punches only infrequently, obviously unwilling to engage in the pocket, and this allowed strong fighters to bully him around the ring. Against Viktor Pesta, however, Tybura was anything but unwilling. He uncorked an impressive 62 strikes over the course of six minutes and flattened the anxious Pesta with a head kick moments into the second round. If Oliveira can get his takedowns going consistently or if he steps in and trades as Pesta was unwilling to do, he could have a chance at victory here. Unfortunately, however, his striking is most likely too raw to contend with the Pole’s newfound aggression. The pick is Tybura by second-round TKO.

Featherweights

Mirsad Bektic (11-0) vs. Darren Elkins (21-5): The UFC could replace every other matchup on this card with 11 replays of Jared Rosholt-Stefan Struve and I would still tune in just to see Bektic do his thing. Talk of “future champions” is often overblown, but Bektic absolutely deserves the accolade. He is effective everywhere, because he is very skilled and because he is an incredibly well-rounded athlete, with explosive power and speed and plenty of stamina. Bektic tends to pressure from the outset with his striking, leading off combinations with his jab and rarely throwing fewer than three punches at a go. This style could leave him vulnerable to counters, but Bektic usually uses the threat of these early strikes to hit takedowns. He can finish with sudden blast doubles or he can use his work rate and strength to chain together takedowns against the fence. On the ground, Bektic is a nightmare akin to Khabib Nurmagomedov, pinning his opponent in place against the fence and hammering him with powerful punches and elbows. Elkins represents a perfect test for this future star. Elkins is generally very durable, and though his striking is far uglier than that of his opponent, he is no less willing to throw combinations. Should Bektic run out of ideas, as so many other young fighters do, Elkins will find openings on the feet. Strong wrestlers tend to take down Elkins, but he is an adept scrambler and a dogged takedown artist in his own right, shooting an impressive eight times per 15 minutes. Bektic is rightly favored, but Elkins should be able to make him work and prove in the process that he belongs in the top 10. Bektic by unanimous decision is the pick.

Bantamweights

Iuri Alcantara (34-7) vs. Luke Sanders (11-0): Alcantara may never truly fulfill his potential, but he is looking better than ever right now. In his bout with Brad Pickett, Alcantara kept his range, threw decisive blows without exposing himself and still showed his typical killer instinct when a spinning elbow and a flurry of punches sent Pickett to the canvas. These may be the necessary adaptations of an aging fighter, but consider this: Anderson Silva won his title at 31, nearly a decade into his career. However, it is not the young Silva who felt he could do anything that we love best but the older man who marshalled his energy, defended his title and made his opponents look foolish. In other words, Silva passed his prime even as he became the best version of himself, and the very same thing may be happening to Alcantara. Sanders is no pushover, and at 31, he is likely right in the midst of his own athletic prime, ready for big fights despite his relative inexperience. Sanders is a more reliable fighter than Alcantara by design, a classic wrestle-boxer who happily throws powerful combinations, frequently using them to set up takedowns and clinch entries. Wrestling has been an Alcantara weakness, but he seems more willing to scramble and escape than before, and he will have a height and reach advantage -- especially when considering the sheer variety of his offense in comparison to Sanders, who relies very heavily on his left straight and right hook. This should be an excellent scrap, but I am counting on Alcantara’s finishing abilities and veteran wiles to carry the day. Alcantara by second-round TKO is the pick.

Heavyweights

Mark Godbeer (11-3) vs. Daniel Spitz (5-0): Godbeer and Spitz are two regional-tier heavyweights, and that means this fight will essentially be a test of hardness and little else. Spitz has an advantage on that count in that reps Sikjitsu, a team run by a guy who considers blocking body shots and leg kicks to be a sign of weakness. Spitz does actually have some nice instincts as a fighter. He moves well for a man his size and understands his range implicitly. Godbeer will have the edge in both experience and punching power, but he has also been knocked out himself on two occasions; and all of his grit and determination were worth nothing in his fight Justin Ledet -- a smarter boxer who kept his distance and picked off Godbeer on the way in. Spitz’s boxing is not on Ledet’s level, but Godbeer’s striking is rote enough that Spitz should be able to find some openings. At the very least, Sikjitsu tends to produce solid grapplers. Spitz has two submissions on his record, and Godbeer was quickly submitted in his last fight. The pick is Spitz by first-round submission.

Light Heavyweights

Tyson Pedro (5-0) vs. Paul Craig (9-0): With eight of his nine wins via submission, Scotland’s Craig should pose an interesting test for blue-chip prospect Pedro on the ground. Pedro is still green, but he possesses the kind of explosive athleticism that typically divides the contenders from the gatekeepers, and he, too, prefers to get things done on the mat. Interestingly, Craig’s boxing could be his best weapon against Pedro. Craig does not show off much in the way of layered defense, but he possesses a nice jab and throws snappy, quick combinations, mixing the occasional stabbing kick into his punch salvos. Pedro has been staggered by punches in each of his last two fights, and while those were against opponents with daunting knockout rates, Craig may still be able to shake the confidence of the less experienced fighter with his hands. However, Pedro has proven he can fight through a tough spot, and he is the better and more powerful takedown artist by far. Craig’s guard is tricky, but he is a little too comfortable there to hang with a powerhouse like Pedro on top of him. Expect Pedro to walk through a brief hailstorm of punches before ultimately dragging Craig to the floor and finishing him. The pick is Pedro by third-round TKO.

Women’s Strawweights

Amanda Bobby Cooper (2-2) vs. Cynthia Calvillo (3-0): Up to this point, Paige VanZant has been the female face of Team Alpha Male, but it may be newcomer Calvillo who actually makes a lasting mark on the UFC. Where VanZant is all aimless athleticism and reckless aggression, Calvillo seems composed of cleverer stuff. On the feet, Calvillo boxes smartly behind a long jab. As with most Team Alpha Male fighters, her mechanics are not perfect, but she moves well from side to side and uses the clinch and takedown entries as necessary to control the distance. On the ground, she is an aggressive but fluid grappler. Overall, her game is full of promise. Cooper is an excellent test for Calvillo, who, at 29, will need to make a run at the top 10 sooner rather than later. Like Calvillo, Cooper is an all-rounder of sorts. She utilizes a movement-heavy kickboxing game and is not afraid to shoot for takedowns when her opponent pressures. Perhaps the biggest difference between them is that Cooper is far more willing to play guard when the fight goes to the ground, whereas Calvillo always seeks dominant position. That could be the deciding factor here. Calvillo by unanimous decision is the pick.

Bantamweights

Albert Morales (6-1-1) vs. Andre Soukhamthath (11-3): Morales came out of nowhere to establish himself as a prospect in the UFC’s exciting bantamweight division, first earning a draw in a fight with veteran Alejandro Perez and then falling short in a war with blue-chipper Thomas Almeida. Morales is at risk of being pushed too far too soon, but he certainly has the chops. Throwing volume and packing heat, Morales is a knockout artist with a knack for opportunistic submissions in scrambles. UFC debutante Soukhamthath was also known for his striking on the East Coast regional circuit, but he typically found himself outstriking fighters who desperately wanted to take him down. I am not yet convinced that his kickboxing, which consists largely of single strikes at range, will hold up against a willing striker with heavy hands like Albert Morales. Soukhamthath has gone the distance several times and recently knocked out Kody Nordbry in the fifth round of a CES MMA title fight, so he should have the advantage down the stretch. Morales, however, will do his best to prevent that from happening. The pick is Morales by first-round TKO.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.