Preview: UFC Fight Night 117 ‘St. Preux vs. Okami’

Featherweights

Mizuto Hirota (18-8-2) vs. Charles Rosa (11-3)

Let this fight be a reminder that technique is not everything. Rosa’s strength is his squirmy grappling and scrambling, while Hirota is a true sprawl-and-brawler with sharp wrestling and great boxing technique. Should be a no-brainer, right? Not so fast. For all of his pugilistic prowess, Hirota is a bit of an enigma. He likes to stalk forward and has big pop in his hands, but he is more comfortable working off of the counter, where he can land check hooks and big rights on encroaching opponents. He generally has a tight boxing guard but when he has defensive lapses, they tend to be major incidents. Hirota is a more skilled and powerful striker than his last opponent, Alex Volkanovski, yet the Aussie dropped him twice with the same winging right hand. “Pugnus” also has great skills in the clinch and he is a capable ground-and-pounder. However, Hirota invariably lets his opponent dictate the range, pace and terms of every fight. “Impose your will” is one of MMA’s most tired cliches, yet the Japanese veteran stands as a complete refutation of the concept.

Meanwhile, the Boston-born Rosa makes up for his deficiencies with tenacity. He is by no means a great technical striker, nor does he possess any serious fight-ending power, yet he manages to have success in the standup by frenetically darting in and out and throwing every sort of kick he can muster to constantly keep his foes on the defensive. He is no powerhouse wrestler, but blowing takedowns is not a big concern for the American Top Team rep, as they open up scrambling opportunities, which is where Rosa thrives, taking dominant positions, attacking with punches and looking for submission openings. In April, he was knocked out in the third round by Shane Burgos, a much more polished and skilled striker, yet still managed to chew up Burgos’ leg and ding him with awkward punches behind his kicks.

The difference here is that Hirota freezes under these sorts of attacks. If the former Sengoku and Deep lightweight champ can time Rosa coming in and unload his punches on the counter, he can win and win in style. However, Rosa’s style is exactly the sort of thing that typically leaves Hirota stuck in first or second gear, consciously looking to defend rather than launch attacks of his own. Rosa’s wild kicking will have Hirota blocking and resetting ad nauseum, and if he runs Hirota into the fence, the Japanese fighter will likely be all-too-accommodating and simply stay in that position rather than breaking free. To be sure, it is dangerous for Rosa that he is so kick-heavy against such a powerful counterpuncher, but Hirota is too judicious about when he pulls the trigger. As a result, he may never get going as Rosa unloads his high-volume attack and ultimately wins a decision.

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