Preview: UFC Fight Night 171 ‘Smith vs. Teixeira’

Heavyweights

Philipe Lins (14-3, -155) vs. Andrei Arlovski (28-19, +135): Nearly every UFC heavyweight has to fight Arlovski at some point, so it is nice that the promotion got that rite of passage out of the way quickly for an Octagon newcomer. Lins missed all of 2019 due to injury before signing with the UFC, but he probably did not mind much. The Brazilian won the 2018 Professional Fighters League heavyweight tournament and claimed a $1 million prize in the process. He will look to build on that momentum against Arlovski, who remains a reliable veteran test while fluctuating between potentially relevant and seemingly done. After a rough 2018 campaign, the former heavyweight champion’s 2019 slate started well enough—he probably should have won on the scorecards against Augusto Sakai and looked to be in excellent form against Ben Rothwell—but a quick knockout loss to Jairzinho Rozenstruik in November scuttled any momentum Arlovski may have had left. Arlovski should be the busier fighter, but Lins is durable and hits hard, which should probably be enough to win this, especially since the Belarusian’s chin seems to vanish for multiple fights before it suddenly reappears. The pick is Lins via first-round knockout.

Lightweights

Michael Johnson (19-15, -115) vs. Thiago Moises (12-4, -105): Johnson could use a win, as his career feels as aimless as ever. “The Menace” has survived worse stretches: He had a run of five losses in six fights, but even then, those defeats were to opponents like Khabib Nurmagomedov, Justin Gaethje and Nate Diaz; and the lone win was a stunning knockout of Dustin Poirier. That skid caused Johnson to cut down to featherweight, which seemed like a bad idea. One of his biggest strengths at lightweight was his speed as a striker, and fighting smaller fighters only figured to mitigate that advantage. In the end, things remained relatively neutral, as Johnson was the same fighter at 145 pounds that he was at lightweight, still relatively quick and fast-handed but unable to get far ahead on the scorecards. He was still more than willing to engage in a brawl when it did not suit him. After getting knocked out by Josh Emmett, things did not improve much back at lightweight. Johnson’s return saw him drop a one-sided third round to Steven Ray that wound up costing him the fight. Johnson looks to rebound against Brazil’s Moises, who can do a little bit of everything; and while he seems to be most comfortable trying to brawl, his ability to successfully wrestle is usually the swing skill that determines his fights. Both suit him well in this matchup. Johnson can be taken out of his game and goaded into a war, and his defensive wrestling looked poor enough against Ray that Moises may have that outlet upon which to fall back. Johnson should get in his licks, but the pick is Moises via decision.

Women’s Bantamweights

Sijara Eubanks (4-4, -365) vs. Sarah Moras (6-5, +305): This is a surprisingly crucial fight for Eubanks. She made her way to the UFC via “The Ultimate Fighter” reality series, where she was an entrant into the promotion’s tournament to crown their first women’s flyweight champion. Eubanks’ inclusion was a surprise: Her record was not particularly impressive, but she was also a career bantamweight. However, Eubanks surprisingly made her way to the tournament final, where her run ended as suddenly as it began, as she botched her weight cut, wound up in the hospital and missed out on the title fight. Eubanks returned and somewhat proved she could be a successful flyweight. She managed to physically overwhelm Lauren Murphy and Roxanne Modafferi on route to clear decision wins, but she struggled on the scale—enough so that she was forced back up to bantamweight. Without that physical edge, Eubanks has not enjoyed much success. A fun brawl against Aspen Ladd could have gone either way, but it is a bit damning that she could not do much with Bethe Correia, who while technically sound is a complete non-athlete. Eubanks gets a chance at a do-over here against Moras. While a completely different fighter than Correia, she is also a non-athlete making the most of her natural ability. Moras got by early in her UFC career thanks to her tricky grappling game, and while she has been improving her boxing, she still makes her money on the ground. As a result, this looks like a bit of a no-win situation for Moras. Eubanks should be the much stronger wrestler if the Canadian tries to take it to the mat, and the Lloyd Irvin protege should still be the better boxer and harder hitter on the feet for all of her own flaws. The lone worry for Eubanks is that her cardio abandons her, a situation that unfolded during the Correia fight and was likely enhanced by the elevation in Mexico City. Otherwise, this should be one-way traffic leading to a Eubanks decision.

Lightweights

Omar Antonio Morales Ferrer (9-0, -155) vs. Gabriel Benitez (21-7, +125): This should be an entertaining scrap and looks like an under-the-radar contender for “Fight of the Night” honors. Since his time on the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter Latin America,” Benitez has carved out a solid niche at featherweight. His game is well-rounded if not particularly deep, so while “Moggly” has been out of his depth against some of the better prospects he has faced, he has been more than able to take out wilder and rawer fighters simply by sticking to the basics. Unfortunately, those adjectives do not describe Ferrer, who has proven to be a well-put-together fighter in his Dana White’s Contender Series win against Harvey Park and his UFC debut against Dong Hyun Ma. He may not run away with this, but his power should win him rounds and his size—Benitez is moving up to lightweight for this fight, possibly as a one-off—should insulate him in the likely event that the action stays on the feet. The main concern is pace. Ferrer has taken care of most of his opposition in quick fashion, and Ma consented to an extremely slow pace, so there is some question about whether or not Benitez can wear him down by forcing him to work for 10-plus minutes. Even so, the pick is Morales via entertaining decision.

Bantamweights

Hunter Azure (8-0, -165) vs. Brian Kelleher (20-10, +145): This should provide plenty of bang for our buck for however long it lasts. Kelleher’s style more or less guarantees action, as the Long Islander usually sells out on defense in order to hunt whatever opportunity at a finish is available. It usually either works or fails in spectacular fashion. Of Kelleher’s seven UFC bouts, only one has gone to a decision and four have been over in less than three minutes. Kelleher takes on Montana’s Azure, a Dana White’s Contender Series alum making his second appearance inside the Octagon. There is much to like and much to work on for the undefeated prospect. Azure comes from a strong wrestling background and has some knockout power, but he often shows signs of fatigue late in fights after constantly trying to make something happen. He seems like the type of fighter who will charge right into something dangerous, and even if it the fight goes on for a while, it is difficult not to see Kelleher taking over in later rounds. The pick is Kelleher by first-round submission.

Heavyweights

Chase Sherman (13-6, -135) vs. Isaac Villanueva (16-9, +115): Sherman was an interesting but clearly flawed heavyweight prospect during his first UFC run. He is athletic and durable but not particularly powerful, which, when combined with his complete lack of defense, led to his getting hit much harder and much more often than his opponents. After splitting his time between MMA and bare-knuckle boxing since his UFC release, “The Vanilla Gorilla” gets a late-notice return to the Octagon against a promotional newcomer in Villanueva. A former middleweight who is now splitting his time between light heavyweight and heavyweight, Villanueva is worth a flier. On the regional scene, he has shown both durability and a willingness to get after it to score a knockout, but it is an open question as to how much of that will translate up a level. This is a good litmus test since Sherman’s physical gifts are his only real advantages here. Sherman is many degrees faster and more athletic than Villanueva’s previous heavyweight competition. While it would not be a shock if he just eats a ton of damage for three rounds or gets completely put out, the pick is Sherman via decision.