Preview: UFC Fight Night 189 ‘Rozenstruik vs. Sakai’

Middleweights

NR | Tom Breese (12-3, 5-3 UFC) vs. NR | Antonio Arroyo (9-4, 0-2 UFC)

ODDS: Breese (-235), Arroyo (+195)

The vibes around Breese’s career certainly are not good, but it is almost impossible not to hold out hope that he can finally put things together. The Englishman entered the UFC in 2015 and immediately set about showing why he was regarded as one of the sport’s top prospects. Advertised as a grappler, Breese scored quick and overwhelming knockout wins over Luiz Jorge Dutra Jr. and Cathal Pedred. After a subsequent win over Keita Nakamura, Breese narrowly dropped a decision to Sean Strickland at UFC 199, which figured to be a minor speed bump on his road to eventual title contention. Instead, Breese more or less dropped off the map, struggling with both injuries and anxiety issues. That limited him to all of one fight over the course of three and a half years, though none of those issues surfaced in that lone bout—a quick victory against Daniel Kelly. Instead, the cause for worry came in what appears to be Breese’s return to a full-time schedule and a February 2020 loss to Brendan Allen. Despite being the more decorated grappler, Breese seemed to essentially cave once Allen managed to take over on the mat, finishing the bout due to uninterrupted ground-and-pound. Breese was able to rebound with another quick win over K.B. Bhullar, showing that he can still obliterate competition below a certain level, but his issues popped up again in his last bout against Omari Akhmedov. This time, Breese made it a back-and-forth fight for over a round, but there eventually came a point where one too many grappling exchanges went against him and he essentially caved once again. If Breese can get his mental house in order, he still has the talent to be one of the top middleweights in the world, but there is a worry that things could go south against anyone who can intimidate or outlast him.

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It is unclear if Brazil’s Arroyo can meet those benchmarks. If nothing else, Arroyo is physically intimidating as one of the few middleweights who can match Breese’s large and lanky frame. Arroyo mostly relies on that size and aura, as he is an impressive striker when given range with which to work, though that has not exactly worked out in his UFC career to date. Andre Muniz and Deron Winn were basically able to take down Arroyo at will, sapping his gas tank and turning their encounters into ugly fights. Breese should be able to get his type of fight early, but there is the worry about what happens if Arroyo just manages to hang around. While Arroyo’s takedown defense has been a liability, he has not seemed completely clueless once he hits the mat and his size could cause some issues. Of course, Arroyo’s suspect cardio makes it a question whether or not he can even take advantage of Breese’s tendency to break late in his fights. The pick is for Breese to have an easy night at the office and get a first-round submission, but all bets are off if this goes any length of time.

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