Early returns look good on Oleksiejczuk’s long-overdue cut to
middleweight. Oleksiejczuk has been a strange fighter to track
going back to his days at the regional level, where he did not
exactly appear poised for success once he hit the UFC. His approach
relied on absorbing damage from his opponents in the hopes that he
could outlast them late. However, the same idea somehow worked in
his UFC debut against Khalil
Rountree, and with subsequent first-round knockouts of Gian
Villante and Gadzhimurad
Antigulov, Oleksiejczuk suddenly looked like a potential
contender to watch. Yet, falling in love with the knockout may have
been the worst thing to happen to “Hussar” in the short-term, as he
was the one who wore himself out and got finished against Ovince St.
Preux, then looked overaggressive in a quick loss to Jimmy
Crute. Oleksiejczuk managed to right the ship with two balanced
wins before getting stifled by Dustin
Jacoby, after which he decided to go from a clearly undersized
light heavyweight down to middleweight. Oleksiejczuk made his
185-pound debut in August by tearing through Sam Alvey, a
performance which looked good but also came against one of the
easier tests in the division. As such, Oleksiejczuk could look to
prove a bit more in his new weight class here. Brundage looks to
continue a surprisingly successful 2022 campaign after a
disappointing UFC debut. A raw wrestler still building out his
striking game, Brundage looked like the type of fighter who came to
the UFC much too early and would suffer for it—an idea further
solidified after a one-sided loss to Nick
Maximov in his first trip to the Octagon. However, Brundage has
persisted and pulled off two impressive finishes, grabbing a
desperation guillotine as he was getting beaten by Dalcha
Lungiambula before knocking out Tresean
Gore in short order in July. Brundage is still obviously
putting things together, but his prior success and the fact that he
seems difficult to finish at middleweight should now give him
enough slack to learn on the job in the UFC. This matchup
essentially comes down to Oleksiejczuk’s ability to keep the fight
standing if he cannot knock Brundage out. His takedown defense was
not tested much at 205 pounds and looked poor when it was, but that
part of the Pole’s game could be helped with more size parity down
at middleweight. Oleksiejczuk could just show out in this one, but
in a bit of a flier, the bet is that Brundage can make this ugly
enough to find some wrestling success and take over the fight. The
pick is Brundage via second-round submission.
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