Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘McDonald vs. Lineker’

Flyweights

Louis Smolka (10-1) vs. Ben Nguyen (16-5): Though it has not always been pretty, Smolka has quietly put together a very nice UFC run, outworking dynamic all-rounders like Patrick Holohan and Neil Seery while only losing to the nails-tough Chris Cariaso. Nguyen has surpassed expectations on his own, showing phenomenal power striking and excellent scrambling ability to back it up. Smolka has the reach, but he is not particularly good at using it, so he will have a hard time dealing with the speedy combination punching of Nguyen, who moves his head and changes angles while he pursues the knockout. Smolka’s tricky clinch skills could be a saving grace, but Nguyen seems to have a natural talent for finding shots in tricky transitions, and he has fought to a five-round decision in the past, so stamina is not an issue. Smolka is durable and game enough to make this a tough, back-and-forth kind of fight, but the pick is Nguyen by unanimous decision.

Women’s Bantamweights

Lauren Murphy (9-2) vs. Katlyn Chookagian (7-0): Murphy finally got her first Octagon win in a gritty effort against Ultimate Fighting Championship debutante Kelly Faszholz, and the UFC seems determined to keep her in that gatekeeper role as Murphy welcomes yet another undefeated prospect to the promotion. Chookagian is a souped-up version of Faszholz, with rangy striking, active-but-imperfect takedown defense and a smooth transitional ground game. Murphy’s strong suits are volume and tenacity. Though hittable and fairly predictable in her striking, Murphy attacks relentlessly and overwhelms her opponents with activity. Chookagian, however, is more seasoned than Faszholz and has numerous decisions, in addition to a dominant five-round win against the then-undefeated Isabelly Varela inside Cage Fury Fighting Championships. Even if Murphy lands with volume, Chookagian is a more impactful puncher and comfortable letting loose with knees in the clinch, where Murphy’s charges often lead her. Murphy always puts on a good show, but this will be another valiant losing effort. The pick is Chookagian by unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Sam Alvey (26-8) vs. Eric Spicely (8-0): A battle of two limited but dangerous middleweights, this one perfectly encapsulates the classic striker-versus-grappler matchup. Spicely is an excellent submission grappler who knows where his expertise lies: He rarely fights for more than 10 seconds without shooting for a takedown. On the ground, he will have the advantage over Alvey, but “Smile’n Sam,” a member of Team Quest, has a solid sprawl and a strong clinch game to back it up. He has beaten such dangerous grapplers as Gerald Meerschaert and Cezar Ferreira. Alvey’s style is defined at this point. He is a counterpuncher who struggles to get things going when his opponent refuses to overcommit. He is also lacking in the athletic department. Fortunately for Alvey, he is a lifelong middleweight with a large frame, while Spicely was a welterweight for much of his career prior to competing on “The Ultimate Fighter 23,” and he carries more fat than muscle at 185 pounds. Spicely tends to struggle when he cannot take down an opponent, and his awkward striking should leave enough openings for Alvey’s killer right hook. Alvey by second-round knockout is the pick.

Women’s Strawweights

Cortney Casey (4-3) vs. Cristina Stanciu (5-1): This one should be wild. Casey and Stanciu are two powerful strawweights with penchants for questionable in-fight decisions. Casey notably stunned Joanne Calderwood before repeatedly pulling guard, while Stanciu jumped for a guillotine choke just seconds into her UFC debut with Maryna Moroz, then dropped to her back several other times throughout the fight. Despite that, Stanciu fought a good fight and overcame an early adrenaline dump to fight a smart, tactical kickboxing match with Moroz in round three. Casey is mostly a puncher, while Stanciu takes more of a muay Thai approach, chopping away with heavy kicks from long range and waiting to unload with a powerful counterpunch or charge in with a whirlwind combo. Casey might be able to capitalize if Stanciu has to spend another middle round recovering from her own flurries, but Stanciu is overall the more technical fighter and should take this fight. The pick is Stanciu by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Scott Holtzman (8-1) vs. Cody Pfister (12-5-1): Holtzman, who has only been fighting professionally for four years, is somewhat stiff on the feet. That troubled him against Drew Dober, who coupled his flighty footwork with improved wrestling to outwork Holtzman in every phase. Holtzman’s athleticism, however, cannot be overstated, and that is his biggest advantage against Pfister, who is not only raw technically but fairly small for this division and not particularly athletic, at least in the traditional strong-and-explosice sense. Pfister is extremely durable and pushes a relentless pace, but his ground game is in need of development. Holtzman has an excellent grappling resource in MMA Lab coach John Crouch, as well as training partners like Benson Henderson and Efrain Escudero. Holtzman will likely push for takedowns, land elbows in the clinch and on the ground and wear down Pfister on his way to a finish. The pick is Holtzman by submission in the third round.

Bantamweights

Rani Yahya (21-8) vs. Matthew Lopez (8-0): Another “Looking for a Fight” product makes his UFC debut. Lopez is a wrestle-boxer with an aggressive bent and a penchant for brutal submissions. Having won five straight fights under the Resurrection Fighting Alliance banner, with four submissions and one TKO, Lopez will have his hands full with the highly experienced jiu-jitsu specialist. Yahya is aggressive in his own right but only with takedown attempts, which he tends to pursue early and often. His ground game is dangerous, but he is consistently outsized and usually finds himself to be the inferior athlete; that will be the case here, too. Yahya’s last bout was in July 2015, a close decision over Masanori Kanehara that would have likely gone against him in today’s judging environment. Though only two years older than Lopez, Yahya has experienced far more wear and tear over the course of his career, and stamina has always been a problem for him -- a problem worsened by the reckless aggression with which he pursues grappling exchanges. To his advantage, Lopez will likely be willing to grapple with him, but the last time that happened, Tom Niinimaki handed Yahya a decision loss. Lopez may do the same or he may finish Yahya late. The latter seems likely. The pick is Lopez by third-round TKO.

Middleweights

Devin Clark (6-0) vs. Alex Nicholson (6-2): Nicholson is a wild card and a great test for a promising young fighter like Clark. Coming in off three straight Resurrection Fighting Alliance wins, Clark is an athletic fighter who specializes in explosive takedowns. Nicholson’s takedown defense has always been a problem, but he is a brawler at heart, unafraid of fighting tooth and nail wherever the fight goes. Clark’s scrambling ability, mixed with ground-and-pound and submission skills, should give him the edge once this fight goes to the ground. In the meantime, he will have to contend with an awkward array of spinning strikes and lunging punches from Nicholson, who has finished six of his eight professional opponents. The pick is Clark by unanimous decision.