Preview: UFC on Fox 17 ‘Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2’

Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:

* * *

Legend

BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.

Advertisement

CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.

LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.

SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?

SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.

* * *

BEST VALUE: Rafael dos Anjos. The new champion’s last fight with Donald Cerrone was fairly close, in that “Cowboy” managed to come back and edge the final round. However, the parameters of the bout seemed very clear: Dos Anjos could pressure effectively, use combinations to take advantage of Cerrone’s straight-up style and beat up his taller opponent with kicks. Dos Anjos has only gotten better at doing these things, while Cerrone’s flaws seem more or less the same as ever. In the neighborhood of -200, dos Anjos is not too bad a bet for what I consider a pretty one-sided matchup.

LIVE DOG: Karolina Kowalkiewicz. The Polish kickboxer has a knack for winding up in close fights, but she also has a knack for winning them. I think her fast-paced, high-volume style of striking should work wonderfully against the more up-and-down approach of Randa Markos, and that makes her a pretty great pick at +160 or so. You might also bank on Markos’ toughness and pick Kowalkiewicz by decision at +224.

SURE THING: C.B. Dollaway. Nate Marquardt just does not have it to compete at the elite level anymore, and despite his recent hiccups, Dollaway still seems to be refining and improving his style. Dollaway hits hard and wrestles well, two things with which Marquardt cannot cope. Honestly, I do not think Dollaway is a bad pick at the straight -375 odds, but you can get him to win inside the distance at +120, which is a straight-up steal.

CAN’T MISS: Michael Johnson vs. Nate Diaz. Yes, Diaz is a big underdog. No, I did not trust him enough to make him my Live Dog pick. Still, Johnson is going to strike with Diaz. He will probably mix in a few takedowns to keep Diaz guessing, but for the most part, he will strike with him, and that means fireworks. Johnson is the only smart pick to win this fight, but I would not be surprised at all to see Diaz return to form and snatch an underdog victory or at least make this a blood-and-guts war of attrition.

SMOKE BREAK: Luis Henrique Barbosa de Oliveira vs. Francis Ngannou. It may very well end in a finish, but there is the distinct chance that this bout turns into that most dreaded of MMA nightmares -- a bad heavyweight fight; and when heavyweight fights are bad, they are really bad. DVR this one and wait for the Twitter reactions to decide whether it is worth watching.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he's not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment, and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.