Opinion: Jailton Almeida's Unstoppable Flowchart

In a typical week, I watch about 20 MMA matches. That's over 1,000 in a year. The vast majority of styles, techniques and even fights repeat themselves over and over. I still enjoy it but get especially excited when I discover a unique approach to the sport. It's like finding a small diamond in an endless forest. The second to last truly original fighter I came across was Jairzinho Rozenstruik, who spawned an entire article. As fate would have it, Rozenstruik's opponent Saturday, Jailton Almeida, is the next and most recent such case. Almeida has now had five fights in the Ultimate Fighting Championship, and all have followed the same sequence of events, to the point where one can perfectly predict what he will do at any given point in a bout.

Let us describe Almeida's approach. He throws a front kick to the head which is merely a setup for his double-leg shot. This shot is very quick, but it is also flawed. The Brazilian's head is too far off-center, and he is frequently on his knees before even grabbing the opponent. However, shot penetration is not the main point. Rather, he wishes to get close and begin grappling in the clinch. There Almeida executes a pickup and slam. Once an opponent is grounded, Almeida gets to half-guard and solidifies his position. If the opponent gets up again, Almeida hits him with a beautiful mat return. Almeida inflicts his ground-and-pound, which is very good, then passes to mount. Once in mount, he unloads hard punches, elbows and unorthodox but effective hammerfists. Either the opponent is finished or else they turn around and give up their back, at which point Almeida slips in a rear-naked choke instantly. Five different fighters have lost in this manner, with only the tiniest variation. Almeida has yet to throw a single standing punch in the UFC, and only a small handful of leg kicks. That would seem unfathomable for a fighter well within the Top 10 in 2023, yet here we are. Almeida's style can be described by a simple flowchart, yet, it has been unstoppable thus far. There are three interesting points related to this.

Firstly, it's that the heavyweight division sucks. There's simply no nice way to say this. In what other division can a fighter make it to the Top 10 without throwing a single standing punch? Even Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev were forced to strike on their way up the ladder and both had far better, more advanced grappling than Almeida does. It shows how bad heavyweights are that, beneficial matchmaking or no, Almeida has yet to face anyone who can stuff his basic clinch takedown. And he is undersized at heavyweight, having started his UFC career at light heavyweight, and never weighing in above 232 pounds. There are what, maybe five, seven fighters in the entire UFC heavyweight division that can stop a style and displayed skillset barely more advanced than what was around in the 90s? Which brings me neatly to my next point.

For those wondering how Rickson Gracie would do in modern MMA, Jailton Almeida provides a reference point. Almeida is obviously more skilled. He is a better wrestler, even taking their size disparity into account, whether discussing the initial takedown or Almeida’s fantastic mat return that Rickson lacked entirely. His ground-and-pound is also far beyond what Rickson inflicted. But nevertheless, he uses the exact same approach the Brazilian legend did back in the day. He doesn't employ any of the newer, fancier grappling tech that has been discovered and implemented in BJJ since Rickson's time; just a phenomenal mastery of the fundamentals.

Lastly, let's consider how Almeida will do going forward. I believe that at the very least, he will spend a number of years winning fights while ensconced in the Top 10. There just aren't enough guys who can resist the flowchart, let alone defeat it! At the same time, we have no clue what Almeida's striking is like, or even how he will react if his standard routine is disrupted. A fighter like like Sergey Spivak, even with his relatively average striking, may be a huge problem and even defeat the Brazilian. However, if Almeida is developing solid striking and can blend it with his grappling effectively when he is challenged enough to do so, he may indeed be an elite contender for the heavyweight throne and can potentially defeat anyone. We really don't know, but again, Almeida's baseline is already quite good. And we know that Almeida is smart with his career, as he wisely called out Tai Tuivasa, yet another striker he can destroy with the flowchart, rather than Spivak or Curtis Blaydes. Regardless of how his career turns out, I sincerely appreciate Almeida. He's a true throwback and original, which there aren't enough of in modern MMA.