Preview: UFC on ABC 3 ‘Ortega vs. Rodriguez’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday in Elmont, New York, returns to ABC for its third card on the network, and this certainly looks like the best of the bunch. Unlike the promotion’s first trip to Long Island, there is not much in the way of local flavor at UFC on ABC 3, but there are plenty of relevant fights, particularly for a non-numbered event. Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez clash in a headliner pairing of two of the featherweight division’s most dynamic finishers, with the latter having the potential to nail down a title shot. Beyond that, there are some important bouts in women’s divisions. Michelle Waterson meets Amanda Lemos in a crucial spot at 115 pounds, while Miesha Tate could easily make herself the top flyweight contender with a victory over Lauren Murphy. Add in some guaranteed action featuring ranked fighters—a featherweight banger between Shane Burgos and Charles Jourdain stands out—and this becomes one of the highlights of the year as far as televised cards go.

Now to the UFC on ABC 3 “Ortega vs. Rodriguez” preview:

Featherweights

#2 FW | Brian Ortega (15-2, 7-2 UFC) vs. #3 FW | Yair Rodriguez (13-3, 8-2 UFC)

ODDS: Ortega (-165), Rodriguez (+140)

Alexander Volkanovski made one of the larger statements in recent memory with his dominant win over Max Holloway two weeks ago, so the time is right for this fight to help sort out some things near the top of the featherweight division. Ortega’s rise through the ranks still seems a bit improbable in retrospect, even with “T-City” now being entrenched among the featherweight elite. Ortega marched up the 145-pound ladder armed with what felt like his grappling skills and little else, losing fights until the moment he found a fight-ending submission. At one point, Ortega somehow managed to string together four straight third-round wins, all in fights where he was unlikely to take a single round on the scorecards. Ortega was a bit quicker in finding a finish against Cub Swanson, and after a subsequent first-round knockout against Frankie Edgar, it seemed like he had channeled his offense effectively enough to challenge Holloway for the featherweight title at the end of 2018. Instead, Ortega suffered a one-sided beating at the hands of the then-champion—it included a memorable spot where Holloway coached the Californian on defense mid-fight—after which he essentially disappeared for two years, looking like a completely different fighter upon his return. That included both cosmetic reasons—Ortega shaved his head in advance of the fight—but also his performance in a five-round domination of Chan Sung Jung, where he took a more patient approach and proved to be an extremely effective pot-shotter, nearly finishing “The Korean Zombie” at multiple points and outstriking him for a clear win. That was enough to earn Ortega a shot at Volkanovski, who had taken the belt from Holloway in the meantime. However, Ortega once again found himself suffering a clear loss at the hands of an all-time great. To Ortega’s credit, Volkanovski’s subsequent dominant wins over Jung and Holloway make his performance look much better. Even in a clearly losing battle, Ortega came impossibly close to choking Volkanovski unconscious with a guillotine. With that said, he will probably need another win or two to get back into the title mix while Volkanovski is champion, even if he holds serve against Rodriguez.

Rodriguez hit the UFC like a lightning bolt in 2014. Expectations were minimal for the inaugural cast of “The Ultimate Fighter Latin America,” but within a year, it became that “El Pantera” was the type of creative offensive force that could become a breakout Mexican star. By 2016, the promotional push was officially on as Rodriguez got headlining affairs against Alex Caceres and B.J. Penn, but after suffering a beatdown at the hands of Edgar in 2017, Rodriguez’s career has gone in a weird direction. Rodriguez was out of action for over a year due to recovery and injuries, and the UFC reportedly even released him at one point due to his perceived unwillingness to take fights. However, that issue got resolved, and Rodriguez’s return featured one of the all-time great knockouts in UFC history. Rodriguez seemed to clearly be on the losing end of a fun fight against Jung, but in the literal last second of a five-round affair, he uncorked a backwards elbow that sent the South Korean slumping to the mat at the buzzer. Naturally, Rodriguez would be out of action for nearly a year after that victory, and naturally, his return fight saw his headlining bout in Mexico City against Jeremy Stephens end in just 15 seconds due to an accidental eye gouge. The UFC rebooked the bout—it resulted in a fun Rodriguez win—though he was once again frustratingly inactive afterwards, out of action for over two years until a November fight against Holloway. Rodriguez put in a game performance against the former champ but clearly lost the decision, though his offensive dynamism forced the Hawaiian to pivot in an unexpected direction and pursue more wrestling than at any point during his career. That seems to give Ortega a path to victory. Ortega is not necessarily the most aggressive takedown threat, and by default, it seems like both men will be content to hit each other from range with powerful single strikes. It could just stay at that simmer for 25 minutes, but at some point, things figure to turn up, whether it is Rodriguez pursuing his own offense or Ortega pivoting to that takedown-heavy gameplan. Either way, at that point, this should pivot to being Ortega’s fight to lose. The extended beatings Ortega has suffered in title fights suggest he might be impossible to knock out, and when Rodriguez springs into action, he leaves himself extremely open to takedowns; if nothing else, his willingness to crash into Ortega gives the Californian plenty of opportunities to just grab the Mexican fighter, which is all he needs to start getting a chain of submissions rolling. While Rodriguez can survive on the mat with most featherweights, Ortega is not most featherweights in this case. The pick is Ortega via third-round submission.

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Lemos vs. Waterson
Salikhov vs. Li
Mudaerji vs. Schnell
Burgos vs. Jourdain
Tate vs. Murphy
The Prelims