Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 61 ‘Tybura vs. Spivac 2’

We can make no bones about it: The latest Ultimate Fighting Championship offering is dire. Unwanted rematches bookend the show, with ESPN again given an iteration of the Saturday Night Contender Series. As a result, betting interest is exceedingly low, with three bouts featuring a favorite of -400 or higher, while only three in total are any closer than -200. Join the UFC on ESPN 61 edition of Prime Picks as we expect to spend a disproportionate amount of our viewing time staring at our watches or clocks.

Marcin Tybura-Serghei Spivac Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-165)

When the two first met in 2020, on the preliminaries of UFC Fight Night 169, the official Sherdog play-by-play concluded the match by writing the following: “This grinding heavyweight skirmish is now over.” The fans, in what turned out to be one of the last shows before the promotion went on hiatus due to COVID-19, were anything but thrilled by how the match played out. Tybura utilized his exhausting, smothering wrestling to ground or control Spivac for at least half of all three agonizing rounds. Since then, it is hard to argue if they have improved as much as they have settled into their respective skill sets that seat them in the lower end of the Top 10. Both have clear deficiencies that establish ceilings and prevent them from climbing to the top of the ladder, and when they face off again, it may be five more rounds of what played out four years ago.

Neither big man relies on speed, athleticism or raw power to beat opponents in the weight class. Tybura prefers to establish position over submission or offense, sometimes to his detriment. Spivac is more snakelike, methodically working his way into a place where he can eventually lock something down or find an opening. When those two styles met the first time, a great nullification resulted, as Tybura was just a bit bigger and better at putting the fight where he wanted it to go. Age is not on Tybura’s side, while Spivac is surprisingly younger than 30. However, Tybura’s style does not need fast-twitch muscles or precise timing to get the job done. It will be up to the youthful man known as “The Polar Bear” to make this entertaining or competitive, as Tybura handed him his lone decision defeat. It might not be pretty, but given that their first meeting went all three rounds, the rematch going at least that far makes sense.

Damon Jackson (+195)

Time is not on the side of newly 36-year-old Jackson. His April performance, a close win against an overweight Alexander Hernandez, showed he still has plenty to offer, but there may only be a few more of those displays left before it all goes sour. As the adage goes, featherweight is not a division historically kind to the elderly. Thankfully, like Tybura above, Jackson does not lean on one-shot knockout power or anything related to speed. On the other hand, opponent Jose Mariscal is the much quicker of the two. It might all hinge on Mariscal’s defensive wrestling unless “Chepe” can clip Jackson standing and put him down.

For as long as the fight goes on, Jackson is not only in the fight but capable of turning things around. There is no sneaky overhand right or sniping blow to flip everything on its head; rather, he flips opponents directly on their heads. Historically, if Jackson can land a takedown, he has shown in the Octagon that he will prevail when the dust settles. Sometimes, it only takes one. If “Action” Jackson drags the fight down, Mariscal may be a bit more gun-shy and concerned about the second or third attempts to come. The chin of the Fortis MMA fighter is not what it used to be, but it should still be able to hold up through early volleys until he can get his hands on Mariscal and toss him around like a takedown dummy. Jackson is quite a live underdog, with a clear-cut path to victory through offensive grappling and plenty of submissions in his arsenal.

DOUBLE PLAY (-159)

Yana Santos-Chelsea Chandler Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-330)

Karol Rosa-Pannie Kianzad Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-400)

To make this next bet palatable, it needs to be coupled. The over on Rosa-Kianzad is too steep, even though it is almost a foregone conclusion that they will engage for the full 15 minutes. Betting lines for these prop bets only get this high when bettors, by and large, see a fight going one way. In this case, the over is in play, with Rosa and Kianzad going to 32 decisions in their 47 pro appearances. Rosa has reached the 12:30 mark in 10 straight fights, encompassing her entire UFC career and beyond. Her Swedish opponent has hit that same over in her last 12 matches against opponents not named Macy Chiasson. To spice it up, we add another over.

Compared to the previous two women, the finish rates are not quite as low for Santos and Chandler. Unfortunately for the Russian, she has not gotten the job done inside the distance since hammering Yanan Wu in 2016. Five of the eight career walks to the cage for the younger Chandler have eclipsed this time margin, with the same over of 2.5 rounds for both bantamweight tilts. Santos largely prefers to control fights in the clinch, while Chandler can do the same by bullying her adversary around and squeezing her through chain links like Play-Doh. The victors of these two pairings are immaterial as long as the clock hits the midpoint of Round 3 in each.

Karl Williams Wins and Over 2.5 Rounds (+120)

Options are slim on the lineup. An outright moneyline for Williams is a little out of the Prime Pick range, with the big man repping the U.S. Virgin Islands around -210. If that is palatable, plunk your hard-earned money down, knowing that Williams’ strategy will not likely differ from his first three UFC appearances. Wrestling is the name of the game for the heavyweight on the smaller side of the division, who has already procured 16 takedowns in those three bouts thus far. That suffocating grappling has allowed him to take the sting out of power punchers, and based on Jhonata Diniz’s first round against Austen Lane, Williams can embrace the grind here, as well.

It will be on the undefeated Brazilian to make Williams pay for each shot, with well-timed knees in case of a low single or double, or flashy fists should he get up close and personal with a body lock. Diniz cannot get backed towards the wall because Williams will take him for a ride, or at least try very hard to do so, and force the 33-year-old to work to keep himself upright. Every minute that Williams remains in the bout should give him confidence, given that Diniz is 7-0 with seven knockouts, none later than 7:12. The fighter currently training out of American Top Team Atlanta has shown on many occasions that he can dig deep and push through three gritty rounds, while it remains to be seen how Diniz handles that. Unless Diniz folds like a flan in a cupboard after the halfway point of the fight, totally spent from getting sorely outgrappled and getting pounded out, the victory for the USVI native plus the over is the way to handle it.