The Bottom Line: Ronda Rousey’s Golden Silence

Editor’s note: The views and opinions expressed below are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Sherdog.com, its affiliates and sponsors or its parent company, Evolve Media.

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There are likely to be a lot of fingers crossed in Las Vegas and Los Angeles during the usually sleepy period between Christmas and New Year’s. While many will be off of work and school, dining on turkey leftovers, the Ultimate Fighting Championship on Friday faces an extremely important date. The return of Ronda Rousey is one of the most bankable pay-per-view attractions the company can offer up and the biggest event on the horizon by far.

Usually, a fight as big as Rousey’s return against Amanda Nunes for the UFC women’s bantamweight crown wouldn’t present many question marks, but this one has plenty. The show will be on a Friday rather than the usual Saturday, a date change that disappointed on pay-per-view the last time it occurred for Brock Lesnar-Alistair Overeem in 2011. Viewers tend to be creatures of habit, and Saturday is well-established as the day for UFC pay-per-views. We have a limited sample size for what happens when the UFC runs on Friday, but the early indications weren’t good.

UFC 207 (current odds) stands out as a particularly important event for reasons that go well beyond the day of the week. Rousey’s career also hangs in the balance. If she turns in a great performance, it could mean that she still takes a number of big fights in the years to come. On the other hand, a poor performance might inspire her to move on to other things in her life for good. Obviously, the UFC is hoping for more Rousey fights, not less.

Moreover, with the new ownership group needing to make significant bank to pay off its interest payments and few big fights on the horizon in early 2017, this card could potentially bring in more revenue than the next three to five pay-per-views combined. If it hits big, even that might be a conservative estimate. If UFC 207 misses relative to expectations, it could be the beginning of some tough times ahead for the UFC from a revenue standpoint.

Given that background, it’s fortuitous that the promotion has such a compelling story leading into UFC 207. Most fights are built around stylistic matchups. The intrigue is how one fighter’s style will do against another’s. It’s something that interests hardcore sports fans of all stripes but isn’t necessarily that relatable to the average person. There is more interest for the bigger stars, but absent a grudge component, the pre-fight speculation usually hinges on how the two combatants match up. That’s fine, but few people spend much time imagining how the people in their lives would do if pitted against each other in fisticuffs. On the other hand, it’s a much more natural human instinct to spend time analyzing what other people are thinking, how they’re feeling and how that affects us.

This is part of what made Mike Tyson such a massive pay-per-view attraction in the 1990s. Nobody felt fully confident where he was coming from or what he might do next. He was a complete wild card, and that made for must-see television. Michael Jordan and Muhammad Ali’s stars rose to the loftiest heights in significant degree due to similar personal intrigue -- in Jordan’s case, the murder of his father and foray into baseball, and in Ali’s case, his objection to the Vietnam War and hiatus from boxing.

Jordan and Ali’s careers took off because they transcended personal turmoil and rose back to the top. Tyson became even more of a novelty because of how spectacularly he failed to do the same. Now, Rousey will have the chance to write her own story. As she returns from self-imposed exile, UFC 207 is shaping up as a full on referendum as to where her head is at. That’s precisely the sort of story that resonates with ardent and casual MMA fans alike. It’s the perfect dynamic to make fans want to pay to see the event, and the answer to their questions will presumably be answered by the fight itself.

Is Rousey more driven than ever before to prove her critics wrong and reclaim the championship that she lost, or is her confidence shattered by a brutal knockout and its fallout? The beauty is that both theories seem entirely plausible and you don’t need to have watched more than the ending to Rousey’s encounter with Holly Holm and a commercial to form an opinion. Nunes’ particular skill set almost seems beside the point, even if it absolutely isn’t in reality.

In another context, Rousey avoiding the media heading into her fight would be a significant negative in selling the fight. Rousey is, after all, able to attract more media attention with her interviews than any other MMA fighter. However, for this fight, it plays perfectly into the intrigue. Nobody knows what to expect from Rousey, and the less we see of her, the more of a big deal it seems when she storms her way back towards the Octagon. The UFC definitely doesn’t want fighters bypassing the media to become the norm, but if there was ever a fight where it accentuated the main selling point of the bout, this is it. Rousey is shrouded in mystery, and few clues will be offered up until she sets foot in the cage.

Rousey-Nunes is not a slam dunk as a massive attraction. The biggest fights tend to catch fire in unexpected ways in the final few days of hype. A lot does rely on how much coverage a few major sports outlets choose to cover the fight, and the Friday date is a concern. However, if I’m betting on the success of this card, I’m betting big on the Rousey intrigue. Fans will be waiting with bated breath to see where Rousey stands, and there’s a genuine air of mystery about it for MMA’s most devoted and most casual fans alike.