UFC 178 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Johnson vs. Cariaso
Chris Cariaso faces an uphill climb on paper. | Photo:
Sherdog.com
The list of UFC champions with five title defenses is a short one: Jon Jones, Tito Ortiz, Anderson Silva, Matt Hughes, Georges St. Pierre and Jose Aldo. Hughes and Ortiz have already etched their names into the Ultimate Fighting Championship Hall of Fame, and it is hard to imagine the others not getting inducted when all is said and done.
Flyweight champion Demetrious Johnson will have the opportunity to add his name to the list when he puts his 125-pound crown on the line against Chris Cariaso in the UFC 178 main event on Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas.
Advertisement
Let us see what the tale of the tape tells us, forgetting for a moment that the opposition during Cariaso’s winning streak has a combined 1-7 record in UFC and World Extreme Cagefighting competition.
It is not often that a fighter can be described as younger, fresher and more experienced, but “Mighty Mouse” boasts those superlatives, along with a slight reach advantage and superior finish rate. Though Cariaso has only been outside the Octagon for 35 more days than Johnson, he has spent more than an hour less inside of it -- a significant departure considering Johnson is now a veteran of six title fights. The glimmer of hope here is that the “Kamikaze” is a southpaw, which could potentially pose problems for the champion; Johnson’s most hotly contested championship match also came against a southpaw in his first fight with Joseph Benavidez. Contrived as that may be, the Fight and Fitness representative will have to dig deep to find any advantages he may potentially exploit against the champion.
Let us see what the performance metrics tell us, starting with the
striking data.
In the striking game, “Mighty Mouse” edges his opponent in head and body accuracy, while conceding a significant leg accuracy advantage. Even though Cariaso lands about one more significant strike per round, it is negated by the additional strike he absorbs in the process. This underscores his penchant for engaging on the feet, as he also attempts 13 more head strikes than Johnson despite averaging five less minutes in the cage per fight. While Cariaso uses combinations to punctuate a versatile striking game, his target does not deviate much from the head, with 85 attempts upstairs per fight compared to 28 to the body and legs combined. This killer instinct has surprisingly yielded zero knockdowns under the Zuffa banner and only a single win by knockout or technical knockout. Meanwhile, Johnson has a more balanced attack, head hunting about 72 times per fight and switching levels to the body and legs 46 times. This variance has likely caused his opponents to drop their hands, providing more opportunities to land flush. His two knockdowns confirm the efficacy of this balanced strategy.
It is worth noting that prior to knocking out Benavidez at UFC on Fox 9, it had been nearly four years since “Mighty Mouse” scored a knockout or technical knockout victory -- the same amount of time between Cariaso’s last two knockout wins. Suffice to say, neither man is regarded as a potent knockout artist, though, in fairness, knockouts are harder to come by in the lighter divisions. Considering neither pugilist has been knocked out in his Zuffa tenure, it seems unlikely the fight will end in instantaneous fashion. As it stands, the numbers paint “Kamikaze” as the more aggressive striker, whereas “Mighty Mouse” is more calculated in using accurate strikes to orchestrate better exchanges.
Both fighters have been known to use their strikes to set up takedowns, which leads us to the grappling statistics.
The stats tell us Johnson has the upper hand in several areas. Not only does he have a non-negligible advantage in his takedown success rate, he does so averaging nearly twice as many attempts per round. When it gets to the mat, Cariaso is more active in advancing position and looking for the submission, whereas “Mighty Mouse” is content to work from inside his opponent’s guard. While the disparity between the two in advances per round does not look like much, nearly half of Johnson’s passes came against John Moraga; excluding that anomaly, he averages 1.3 passes per fight, or 0.39 per round. Johnson is equally lax in his submission attempts, but where he lacks in quantity, he more than makes up for in quality, executing two of his four attempts compared to Cariaso’s 1-for-11 mark.
Both fighters have enjoyed equal success staving off opponents’ takedowns, though Johnson has stuffed an additional 18 total attempts. Only three men have tried to submit both Cariaso and Johnson; “Mighty Mouse” has wrenched himself out of every attempt, but two men -- Moraga and Renan Barao -- successfully elicited the tap from Cariaso. This could prove troublesome for the challenger should the fight hit the mat, given Johnson’s high-percentage submission rate.
THE FINAL WORD
This fight has been much maligned by fans and critics alike. Oddsmakers have echoed that sentiment in their own way, placing “Mighty Mouse” as the exorbitant favorite at -1375 to Cariaso’s +900. The numbers align accordingly; “Kamikaze” does not have a distinct statistical advantage in any meaningful way. It is also worth mentioning that Johnson has fought the cream of the 125-pound crop consistently, making his statistical superiority that much more convincing. If you fancy common opponents as a predictive barometer, “Mighty Mouse” dominated Moraga before submitting him, while Cariaso was on the losing end of a submission to the same man; however, that is a simplification of a fight that was fairly even going into the final round. At any rate, Cariaso is a tough customer, and his strong striking and willingness to engage should make it a dynamic fight at the very least. Plus, the puncher’s chance rears its head in MMA from time to time.
Though history is on the line for Johnson, this does not quite have the feel of a legacy-defining fight. On the other hand, should Cariaso do the improbable, it would certainly thrust his name in the history books. Championship contenders coming off of split decision wins are 1-8 all-time in their bids for UFC gold. The outlier was Matt Serra’s knockout victory over St. Pierre at UFC 69. Does Cariaso have the tools to scratch his name next to the biggest upset in MMA history?
Raw data for the analysis was provided by and in partnership with FightMetric. Eric Stinton performed all analysis. Stinton, FightMetric and Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights, financial or otherwise.
Related Articles
