UFC 190 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Rousey vs. Correia

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It is hard to determine the exact height of Ronda Rousey’s ceiling.

Rousey in 2015 became a New York Times bestselling author, had a prominent role in a blockbuster movie and won two ESPYs. All this after posting a 14-second don’t-blink win over Cat Zingano in February -- a fight she won without throwing a single strike. She seems to be riding a wave of inertia into her sixth Ultimate Fighting Championship title defense, each additional achievement adding an extra layer to her aura of invincibility.

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Hoping to play spoiler in the UFC 190 main event on Saturday is the undefeated Bethe Correia. The Brazilian contender has taken the express route up the bantamweight ranks, posting a perfect 3-0 record in the UFC thus far. Of note: Two of her three victories were over members of Rousey’s training posse, weaving a personal thread into the fight’s storyline. Even though “Pitbull” has looked progressively better each time out, Rousey is clearly on another level from her previous opponents, who held a combined 1-7 record in the UFC.

Still, there are enough narrative and stylistic facets to make this an intriguing fight. Here is what the Tale of the Tape tells us:

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The incumbent champion Rousey is the younger, taller, rangier fighter, giving her the anthropometric edge. The only potential caveat in there is that Rousey has had a longer athletic career and consequently has undergone more physical tread than the former accountant Correia. Rousey has not shown any signs of wear yet and is still firmly in the prime of her athleticism, but one has to wonder whether or not her long career as a high-level judoka and fighter will eventually start to catch up with her. The reach advantage may not amount to much, either, judging by how Correia handled the longest fighter in the division in Jessamyn Duke. If anything, Correia’s physical, aggressive style benefits from being slightly smaller and more compact, which allows her to throw tight, powerful punches in the pocket and against the fence.

Although Correia started her MMA career 14 months after Rousey and fought in fewer big-league fights, she has still logged more in-cage minutes than the Californian. This creates a strange experience dynamic, but it is hard not to give that advantage to Rousey, a veteran of seven career title bouts. The Brazilian has made some questionable in-fight decisions before, and it is not impossible to envision the pressure of the fight getting to her, especially in front of a supportive crowd of countrymen.

The final component to consider is the layoff. Fun fact: Since Rousey beat Zingano on Feb. 28, enough time has elapsed to play that fight in its entirety exactly 950,400 times. Anyway, Correia has been on the shelf more than twice as long as Rousey. This could be problematic for the challenger, especially given the dramatic step up in competition Rousey represents. Ring rust is no good against anyone, but it will almost guarantee a short night and a sore arm against Rousey.

Overall, the Tale of the Tape is quite vague, so let us inspect the stylistic matchups more closely, starting with the striking:

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Striking will be Correia’s most likely avenue to success. “Pitbull” is a pressure fighter who looks to herd her opponents into the fence by cutting off the cage and unloading a steady volume of punch-kick combinations. She excels in the pocket, where she finds openings by mixing straight and looping punches to the body and head. Most of her strikes come at distance, however, accounting for 88 percent of her total output. The rest of her strikes come in the clinch, as her lone ground strike in the UFC makes a negligible impact on her striking metrics. Correia’s target is fairly balanced, as well, with 68 percent of her strikes aimed at the head and the rest split evenly between the body and legs.

It has been more than a year since Rousey threw her last strike in the Octagon. Thus, how much she has evolved is a bit of a question mark. So far, she has mostly used her boxing to close the distance and get in the clinch, where she is particularly lethal. Her striking range is more varied than her opponent’s, with 45 percent of her output from distance, 28 percent in the clinch and 26 percent on the ground. Rousey’s aim, however, is a little more predictable, with 76 percent of her strikes going upstairs, 14 percent to the body and 10 percent to the legs.

What will matter most will be Correia’s ability to stay at a comfortable range. Her clinch game is a liability, as she has the tendency to put her head down during close-quartered exchanges. This has opened up holes big enough for previous fighters to exploit, and Rousey is among the best in-fighters in the sport. If the Brazilian can abstain from getting too close and unload some leather along the way, the fight will be interesting. If not, there is little reason to believe Correia’s fate will be any different from Rousey’s previous victims.

Let us take a closer look at how the grappling matchup will play out:

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The stats tell a pretty lopsided story, and for the most part, that story is accurate. Granted, Rousey’s career has thus far confounded the usefulness of per-round statistics, since her fights rarely last that long; as a result, these numbers may be a tad inflated. Still, Rousey is constantly working on the mat, shifting fluidly from takedowns to positional advances to submission attempts. Aside from sheer activity, Rousey is potently effective, utilizing her judo skills to set up high-percentage armbars or maneuver into a dominant position to rain down strikes. She has never been in any legitimate trouble on the ground.

It is unlikely that Correia, reportedly a jiu-jitsu blue belt, will be the first to give Rousey problems on the mat. Her grappling stats corroborate this notion; she has attempted four takedowns in three fights and made zero submission attempts, and two of her three positional advances were sweeps or reversals after she was taken down. The only notable statistic is that she has done well fending off takedowns thus far. Other than that, Correia has kept her distance from the grappling department, and she has done well for it.

THE FINAL WORD

A week out from the fight, the odds were pretty slim for the challenger. Correia was anywhere from a +725 to +1000 underdog, while Rousey was somewhere between a -1400 and -1500 favorite. Statistically, this is justifiable: Rousey has a measurable advantage in almost every category of the fight game. With that being said, Correia has a legitimate path to victory through her striking, and since she is relatively fresh in the sport, her improvements could very well be exponential. Plus, she has plenty of examples of what not to do against the face of female fighting. Rousey has been brilliantly, undeniably dominant throughout her MMA career and seems focused on retiring undefeated. Will Correia go down in the annals of MMA history as the first woman to beat “Rowdy” or as just another name on her illustrious list of overmatched opponents?

Data for the analysis was provided by FightMetric. Eric Stinton performed all analysis. Stinton and Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights, financial or otherwise.