UFC 209 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Nurmagomedov vs. Ferguson
The latest
Ultimate Fighting Championship interim title may be its best to
date.While current lightweight kingpin Conor McGregor is on hiatus, top contenders Khabib Nurmagomedov and Tony Ferguson on Saturday will duke it out in the UFC 209 co-main event to determine who is next in line for the title. Nurmagomedov has more UFC wins than any other undefeated fighter in the organization. After staying on the shelf for all of 2015, he returned to dominant form last year with two savage finishes -- a TKO of Darrell Horcher and a submission of Michael Johnson. This will be his first fight of 2017 and the quickest turnaround time between fights in his UFC career.
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This is a fantastic matchup of two exciting fighters and top contenders who have been hovering around the title picture for years; both men are in their primes. Let us see what the Tale of the Tape says:
Nurmagomedov is at a non-negligible disadvantage anthropometrically. Though he is only an inch shorter, Ferguson has a half-foot of reach on him -- an unprecedented disparity for “The Eagle.” That is really the only clear advantage here. Although Nurmagomedov is four and a half years younger, it is hard to say that it will mean anything come fight time. Ferguson has shown no signs of age-related ailment, and if anything, Nurmagomedov has been more plagued by injury; it is part of why he has yet to receive a crack at the title.
Both started fighting professionally in the same year and have
close to the same amount of total fights; Nurmagomedov debuted in
the UFC seven months after Ferguson did. The small difference in
UFC fights is a result of Nurmagomedov’s two-year absence. The
total Octagon time favors the experience of Ferguson, but the
difference itself is not as important as the fact that Ferguson
just fought for five rounds -- at altitude, no less -- whereas
Nurmagomedov has yet to fight past the third round. That may or may
not be a factor, but it is something to consider. They are also
coming off of nearly identical layoffs.
As always, this is only a small glimpse into the actual matchup. Here is how the striking numbers break down:
The striking matchup is a clash of very different styles.
Ferguson is a diverse and offensively minded striker. His game is predicated on volume: Only four lightweights land more strikes per round. He works behind constant pressure, utilizing unorthodox kicks and multi-punch combinations to push opponents into retreat. A total of 79 percent of his strikes are aimed at opponents’ heads, while he targets the body and legs the remaining 10 percent and 11 percent of the time. Ferguson’s preferred range is decidedly lopsided: 94 percent of his strikes come at distance, while only two percent are in the clinch and four percent are to grounded opponents.
Nurmagomedov is a much more limited striker. Rarely is it his game plan to stand and trade shots. His striking mainly serves as a way to close distance and either get into the clinch or grab a hold of his opponent for trips and takedowns. “The Eagle” does not throw too many kicks and tends to rely on single lunging punches to get in range to tie-up. He has shown some improvements, but he is still awkward and stiff for the most part. A whopping 91 percent of his strikes are aimed at the head, while six percent go to the body and three percent are leg kicks. As for his preferred range, 51 percent of his strikes come at distance, while five percent are in the clinch and 44 percent are on the ground, where he is most comfortable.
Both Nurmagomedov and Ferguson have distinct defensive holes. Ferguson has the tendency to get overaggressive and leave his head out for counters, while Nurmagomedov is limited and predictable. “The Eagle” has better defensive statistics, but that is largely a result of spending more time on the ground and thus having fewer exchanges. If the fight were to stay on the feet for a prolonged period of time, Ferguson is more equipped to take advantage of his opponent’s weaknesses than the other way around.
Yet there is a very strong likelihood that the fight will hit the mat at some point, which opens several more layers of the fight. Here is what the grappling stats say:
Nurmagomedov is one of the most dominant wrestlers in all of mixed martial arts. He is relentless and crafty, chaining a variety of trips, tosses, singles and doubles in pursuit of the takedown, and he almost always eventually gets it. Only Gleison Tibau has managed to stuff all of his attempts and stay upright. Once on the ground, the former combat sambo world champion is absolutely devastating. In 39 completed takedowns in the UFC, he has advanced position 34 times. From side mount or mount, “The Eagle” smothers opponents with an exhausting amount of punches and is a capable submission artist if the opening is there.
“El Cucuy” is no slouch when it comes to wrestling or grappling, though. A former national wrestling champion and brown belt in jiu-jitsu, Ferguson may not look to take the fight to the ground as frequently as Nurmagomedov, but he is nonetheless effective when he gets there. He has advanced position every time he has completed a takedown, and he constantly looks to finish the fight through submission attempts. His takedown defense has been solid, but much lesser wrestlers like Edson Barboza and Josh Thomson have been able to get him to the mat, so it is almost inevitable that Nurmagomedov will do the same.
There are a few things to look out for. First, Ferguson may very well try to put Nurmagomedov on his back. If he can -- and more importantly if he can keep him there -- Ferguson will have a lot of ways to win. “The Eagle” is adept at scrambling into advantageous positions, though, and so far, no one has been able to withstand the Dagestani’s onslaught once the punches start raining down. It will be interesting to see if Ferguson’s submission game can match wits with Nurmagomedov’s top control or at least nullify it to some degree. Both men are high-level grapplers in different ways and both look to finish the fight at all times, making the grappling matchup a particularly dynamic and intriguing aspect of the fight.
Final Word
This is an ideal situation for any fight fan. Rarely do two fighters stick out from the rest of the crowd so clearly and rarer still are the times when such fighters face off in their primes. The betting lines are understandably close. Nurmagomedov is the slight favorite, anywhere between -189 to -140, while Ferguson is in the range of a +165 to +186 underdog. There are a lot of wrinkles to this fight, both on the feet and on the mat. This has all the ingredients to be an excellent fight, and in spite of it being for the interim belt and not the real thing, this is one of the finest fights the UFC could have put together. The extra bonus is that either winner will provide a unique and exciting opponent for McGregor’s return.
Data for the analysis was provided by FightMetric. Eric Stinton performed all analysis. Stinton and Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights, financial or otherwise.
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