UFC 210 Statistical Matchup Analysis: Cormier vs. Johnson 2
It has been a year and a half since the undisputed Ultimate Fighting Championship light heavyweight title has been up for grabs. After Daniel Cormier defeated Anthony Johnson in May 2015 and captured the championship vacated by Jon Jones, the belt has been defended once and interrupted several times. Jones came back to win an interim title against Ovince St. Preux a year ago but was forced out of a unification bout with Cormier at UFC 200 after a last-second United States Anti-Doping Agency violation. Then, the rematch between Cormier and Johnson was scheduled for UFC 206 in December, only to be scrapped by an injury to the champion.
Finally, the promotion’s most storied title will be contested again when Cormier meets Johnson in the UFC 210 main event on Saturday in Buffalo, New York. Cormier was last in action against Anderson Silva in July, when he took a lopsided unanimous decision and handed the former middleweight champion his first loss at 205 pounds. Last year was the first time since 2012 that Cormier only fought once in a calendar year, and this will be his first fight of 2017 (online sportsbooks).
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This is an exciting rematch, from both a narrative and a stylistic matchup. Here is how the Tale of the Tape breaks down:
A few things stand out. The first is Johnson’s anthropometric advantage, as he is three inches taller and has half a foot of reach on Cormier. For a power puncher like “Rumble,” who scored a knockdown against Cormier early in their first fight, this is an important advantage.
Though Cormier is five years older, he started his professional MMA
career three years after Johnson and has eight fewer total fights
and two less big-promotion bouts. Still, because of Johnson’s
penchant for quick knockouts -- he has five wins in under a minute
-- Cormier has logged an hour and a half more cage time than his
opponent.
Cormier’s age is an inescapable X factor. At 38 and with nearly eight years of professional MMA and a lifetime of high-level wrestling behind him, it is only a matter of time until age catches up with “DC.” This is especially the case since he had to pull out of fights twice last year due to injuries. This may or may not be the fight where Cormier gets old, but as he inches closer and closer to 40, it becomes a more noteworthy element to consider, especially since Johnson is at a typically peak age for fighter performance.
Yet these types of numbers only tell us so much. Let us take a closer look at the striking matchup:
A bit of housekeeping upfront: The numbers for Johnson are taken from only his light heavyweight bouts. Prior to that, his fights were old enough and his weight cuts extreme enough to skew the statistics, whereas Cormier’s move from a small heavyweight to a light heavyweight who has never had problems making weight does not seem to indicate any statistical distortion.
With all that said, this is Johnson’s best shot at a W. Although his kickboxing game is most known for its devastating power, Johnson is a sound technical striker. He is patiently aggressive, working behind a solid jab and leg kicks to open up his opponents for counters. His game is equal parts smooth and powerful. He throws with slightly greater volume than Cormier while still maintaining roughly the same accuracy, and he eats fewer shots in the process. Of all his light heavyweight fights, 88 percent of his strikes are aimed at the head, while the rest are split evenly between body shots and leg kicks. He mostly stays at range, where 74 percent of his strikes come from, while 11 percent are in the clinch and 15 percent are to grounded opponents. Unless he is on his back, he has fight-ending power in every strike.
Cormier is not a natural striker but is nonetheless effective. He is at his best when he is the aggressor, using punch-kick combinations to push his opponents back and against the fence where he can utilize his grappling for tie-ups or takedowns. His stocky frame helps him excel in the clinch, where he can control his opponents and grind them down with short punches. Of all his strike attempts, 82 percent are aimed at the head, while he targets the body 11 percent and legs seven percent of the time. His preferred range is a bit more balanced than Johnson’s: 66 percent of his strikes come from distance, while 18 percent are in the clinch and 16 percent are against opponents on the ground.
The real difference maker is Johnson’s one-shot power. As long as he can stay upright, he can end the fight at any instant. He averages nearly a knockdown per fight, and he has 12 first-round knockouts in his career. The more he can keep his distance and tee off at range, the better his chances are, whereas Cormier has to do what he did in their first fight -- close the gap and wear down “Rumble” -- to avoid those knockout blows.
From one man’s wheelhouse to the other’s, let us see how the grappling numbers stack up:
It goes without saying, but this is where Cormier, the former Olympian, is most comfortable.
Cormier is a powerful wrestler with a deep reservoir of takedowns. His grappling is most effective in the clinch, where his pressure and strength wear down opponents and allow him to use his lower center of gravity as leverage for big slams. He is a constant threat, even if he completes less than half of his takedowns. Once on top, he is stifling. He passes the guard smoothly and punishes opponents with heavy ground-and-pound. He does not often look for submissions, but he has a few tricks in his sleeve in that department, as “Rumble” is well-aware from their first encounter. Even when Cormier is not doling out damage from dominant positions, his sheer presence is suffocating. He has not had to work from his back much, as only Jones, Johnson and Alexander Gustafsson have taken him down, but he has shown deft scrambling ability to get back to his feet.
Johnson does not come from the wrestling pedigree that Cormier does, but he is nonetheless effective in this phase. He has better takedowns than he is given credit for, mostly because he does not use them often; as a light heavyweight, he has attempted a takedown against less than half of his opponents. However, he is a very strong defensive wrestler. When he keeps his range, he is extremely difficult to take down, and only the best wrestlers are able to capitalize when he overcommits in exchanges. On the mat, he has vicious ground-and-pound, which he relies on much more than positional dominance or submissions. His Achilles’ heel, however, is when he is on his back. He scrambles well, but if he is not able to explode out from underneath an opponent, he has little defense from the bottom. Cormier exploited this hole in his game in their first fight and likely will try to do so again. Johnson’s submission defense has haunted him throughout his career; he has been submitted in the UFC at virtually every weight at which he has fought.
Final Word
This is the best fight the division can put together right now. There is not much nuance to the stylistic matchup: Johnson needs to stay at range to become champion, and Cormier needs to close that distance to remain champion. How each fighter will go about executing his respective game plan, however, will be dramatic and technical. Despite the relative ease of Cormier’s victory at UFC 187 two years ago, this is a hard fight to predict. The odds are close, with Johnson the slight favorite between -110 to -130 and Cormier anywhere between -110 to +107. For both men, this fight has high stakes of legitimizing their careers, and as such, this has all the marks of a legacy-defining fight. All eyes will be on the light heavyweights again at UFC 210, especially those of the returning Jones.
Data for the analysis was provided by FightMetric. Eric Stinton performed all analysis. Stinton and Sherdog.com assume no responsibility for bets placed on fights, financial or otherwise.
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