UFC on ESPN 51 Beforemath: Will Rafael Dos Anjos Be Big Enough for Vicente Luque?

Every now and then a fighter whom you’d never imagine being a staple of the sport shows up and just keeps on fighting. Rafael dos Anjos is that fighter. Coming into “UFC Vegas 78,” he’s the owner of the most fight time in Ultimate Fighting Championship history. You’d never think of Dos Anjos as the man who has always been there. Maybe Jim Miller. Benson Henderson, possibly. But no, Dos Anjos has always been the guy. This weekend, he’s back again and taking on the tough Vicente Luque. Luque is coming back from some rough times, having been sidelined for a year due to a brain bleed in his last fight with Geoff Neal that could have very well cost him his life.

In today’s issue of Aftermath, one that features an all-Brazilian showdown, we will be attempting to answer the question: What can the smaller Dos Anjos do to outmuscle Luque? We will also be looking at how Luque deals with a pressure fighter like Dos Anjos.

Unanswered Questions

With the extent of Luque’s injuries in his last fight, the unanswered question is how well he has recovered physically and mentally. A brain bleed can often lead to death and requires significant time off. In the context of this fight, Luque’s first fight back, how will he be mentally against Dos Anjos? A near-death experience changes a person and in the case of a fighter, that change can be negative. Luque, who is aggressive and forward-coming by nature, may come out passive and timid. That would be a disaster, but understandable. This isn’t a thing we can analyze, nor is the type of thing we normally delve this deep into. It’s only Luque and his camp that know if he is ready to be back in the cage.

Luque will have a problem because he won’t be able to push Dos Anjos to the fence to tee off. Dos Anjos enjoys coming forward, smashing the legs, and ducking under for takedowns. Fortunately for Luque, crowding the kicker doesn’t seem to bother him. Against Niko Price, Luque ate 33 of 36 low kicks yet managed to land 37 of his own.

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Luque is OK with eating a kick to land a kick, betting that his are better and heavier. Landing the kicks on Dos Anjos will slow down the former lightweight champ, making his takedowns more difficult, and make mobility more difficult. This will let Luque really get to work and take his time to pick apart Dos Anjos. Pouring the low kick on early will be a point of emphasis for Luque. While Luque has a wicked D’Arce choke, with four to his name officially, that won’t be as big of a deal against Dos Anjos has not lost by submission in his career. Not Khabib Nurmagomedov, not Colby Covington, Kamaru Usman—nobody has submitted Dos Anjos.

Against Luque, Randy Brown made mistake that Dos Anjos makes all the time. When entering the pocket, an ill-attempted takedown cost him the fight. (1) Brown is very mobile and will enter the pocket from too far out at times. (2) He reaches down for the knee but is a hair too far away. Luque throws a jab and sees that Brown dropped his hand for the takedown attempt and (3) brings an elbow around to knock him down.

Luque will find these situations except that Dos Anjos will actually be looking for a clinch situation. With Luque now switching stances, he can actually create this situation for himself despite Dos Anjos knowing where to shoot from. Stepping back with his lead foot, going from orthodox to southpaw or vice versa, he can create space and land these types of strikes. But Luque will have to concede ground for this to happen, not something he’s known for.

Against Rafael Fiziev, we also saw Dos Anjos’ susceptibility to lowering his hands. This could cost him against Luque, but Luque is not one to go to the body too often. He will, but it isn’t a mainstay of his game plan.

(1) Fiziev set up the expectation for Dos Anjos to lower his hands by stepping in with the knee time and time again. This time, after throwing the knee, Fiziev stays in the pocket and throws a right hook. After the right hook, Dos Anjos still has his hands down from the body work from earlier. Instead of getting his hands on the phone, (3) Fiziev throws a logical left hook up top. (4) It lands clean and (5) Dos Anjos is out on his feet.

Luque can overwhelm Dos Anjos like this with his footwork. He may not go to the body too often, but it doesn’t take all that much. Even if it’s a couple jabs or kicks to the body, getting Dos Anjos’ hands down is a big path to victory for anyone in fighting, much less Vicente Luque.

Again, the biggest factor for Luque will be his mental state going into this fight. That is not something we go into but it will be a huge x-factor at the Apex this weekend. If he comes out timid, not pushing forward and switching stances, it will either be a long or short night for Luque. Execution will be the main point for him on the night. Unfortunately, Rafael dos Anjos is going to execute where he can.

The Legend Returns

Dos Anjos has fought almost everyone in the UFC. Adding Vicente Luque to the mix will only make that résumé even deeper. Dos Anjos has bounced back and forth between welterweight and lightweight in recent years and after his loss to Fiziev, he’s set to return to a division where he doesn’t have much of a weight cut.

For Dos Anjos, Luque’s loss to Belal Muhammad is going to be a point of interest. Muhammad managed to stave off the aggressive striking from Luque and use his over pursuit to duck under for some pretty sweet takedowns. Muhammad had his best work in the middle of the cage and Dos Anjos does his share of grappling by grinding his opponents down against the fence.

Dos Anjos likes to shoot a double leg takedown against the fence and if he cannot complete it, will come up with (1) double under hooks. Doing this lets him change levels again if he sees an opportunity and to continue his chain wrestling. In this case, (2) Dos Anjos reaps the outside leg of Barberena, (3) pulls the leg out and leans forward and (4) lands in half guard. Half guard is optimal for Dos Anjos. He can do work her and create submission opportunities as well.

But Dos Anjos will not be able to go blow for blow with Luque, who is a more seasoned fighter. As we talked about earlier, Luque is an avid user of the low kick. Dealing with that like he tried to against Tony Ferguson, which was by kicking the kicker, won’t work. Luque gets his low kicks in come hell or high water. Dos Anjos will have to check the low kick and make Luque miss.

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When checking the low kick, he can either hinge at the knee, as seen in the animation above, retract his leg, or take it on the thigh Thai style. The first two options will give Dos Anjos the opportunity to make Luque miss and the power behind the kick will force him to over extend on the kick and open up an angle for the former champion. This will allow Dos Anjos to either get a striking opportunity to land some heavier blows or grab a body lock and look for another takedown.

All fights start on the feet and Dos Anjos will have to find ways to get damage on Luque if he gets stranded on the feet. Against Geoff Neal, we saw how Luque is prone to feints and counters.

Neal allowed Luque to come forward in their fight. (1) When he’s backed against the fence Neal will step into the pocket and (2) Luque the low kick. He does this by twisting his knee as if to throw the kick. This will draw a jab out of Luque which (3) Neal will slip to the outside and land a counter cross to punish Luque. He did this multiple times in the fight and Dos Anjos can use it to similar success.

At this point, Dos Anjos is legacy-building. But a win over 10th ranked Luque would put him right in the top 10 at welterweight and a chance to become a world champion once again. But first things first, beat Luque.