Preview: UFC 190 ‘Rousey vs. Correia’

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Light Heavyweights

Mauricio Rua (22-10, 6-8 UFC) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-6, 4-3 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Nogueira draws Rua more than ten years after the two men first met in an epic matchup back in Pride Fighting Championships. Both fighters are long past their primes. Rua is 3-6 since losing the title to Jon Jones; injuries have limited Nogueira to two fights in the last three years; and both were viciously knocked out in their last fights. It is possible, though, that they will recapture the old magic one more time.

Rua has lost a step athletically from his title-winning form and several from the freakish physical talents of his youth. He remains a skilled and powerful puncher, however, and retains the ability to end a fight at any time. Crisp jabs and crushing low kicks set the distance and rack up points at range, while overhands and left hooks are his power-punching bread and butter. He can fight aggressively or on the counter with equal skill, and he excels at punching his way into the clinch, where he throws brutal knees and maintains strong control. Defensive wrestling is and always has been a serious problem, but offensively, he works nice trips in the clinch along with the occasional double- or single-leg. On the mat, he passes nicely and throws brutal ground strikes when he postures, but his reliance on the deep half guard to get back to his feet makes him predictable when attempting to scramble. The biggest problem at this stage is defense. Rua relies almost entirely on a double-forearms guard for defense, and while in the past his toughness has made up for his lack of defensive acumen, that is no longer the case.

Nogueira is reasonably well-rounded. He works behind a probing southpaw jab and straight left at range and has solid boxing skills, in general. He does not throw much volume, however, and is not much of a power puncher. Defensive wrestling was an Achilles’ heel for Nogueira early in his UFC career, but his takedown defense has drastically improved in his last few outings, and it is now a real strength for him. He remains a venomous and high-level grappler with a particular affinity for the half guard and deep half. Sweeps and submissions from the bottom are specialties, though strong, technical top position grapplers have consistently been able to control him.

BETTING ODDS: Rua (-210), Nogueira (+180)

THE PICK: Given both fighters’ physical decline, it is hard to predict precisely how this fight will play out. It seems clear, however, that Rua will have the edge in power, volume and diversity at range and likely clinch work, as well. Nogueira is not much of a takedown artist, but if he could get on top, he might be able to give Rua trouble. If this plays out as a striking match, as it probably will, Rua has to be the favorite. The pick is Shogun by knockout in the second round.

Next Fight » Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Stefan Struve