Preview: UFC 209 ‘Woodley vs. Thompson 2’

UFC Interim Lightweight Championship

Khabib Nurmagomedov (24-0) vs. Tony Ferguson (22-3)

THE MATCHUP: This is the best fight possible in the lightweight division, no discussion necessary. Nurmagomedov and Ferguson have both established themselves as the No. 1 contender for the title at various points in the past, with no clear consensus on who is more deserving of the shot. Their combined UFC record stands at 19-1, and while Nurmagomedov can rightly say that the sole loss belongs to his opponent, Ferguson boasts one of the best finish rates in the entire division. He may live and die by the sword more often than Nurmagomedov, but he has done far more killing than dying in his stellar UFC run.

Ferguson has something of a reputation as a wild man, a flashy brawler who throws over 10 significant strikes per minute. Speaking of those strikes, “El Cucuy” really runs the gamut. Clubbing low kicks, tight punching combinations and a whole host of elbows, ranging from the spinning and the vertical to the slapping, make Ferguson one of the most creative and unpredictable offensive kickboxers in the sport today. This method can come at a cost. Ferguson is a tall man, and his chin is an inviting target for a headstrong opponent. However, he has never been stopped via strikes, despite absorbing the best offerings of men like Edson Barboza, Lando Vannata and Rafael dos Anjos.

In the realm of striking, Nurmagomedov will likely find himself sorely outmatched. To be clear, it would be erroneous to suggest Nurmagomedov is not an effective striker. In fact, he employs a unique boxing style, comprised of snappy straight punches and odd, corkscrew uppercuts which serve to stand up his opponents and expose their hips for his takedowns. Still, Nurmagomedov is fairly upright for a takedown artist, and his head movement is more awkward than it is technical. He was stung numerous times by both Darrell Horcher and Michael Johnson before finally bulling his way into takedown attempts.

Once those takedowns materialize, however, Nurmagomedov is uniquely unstoppable. He has taken down every one of his last five opponents. In the case of Abel Trujillo, FightMetric has him scoring an outrageous 21 takedowns. More recent opponents have not received the same sort of wrestling exhibition, but only because Nurmagomedov has improved his top control and ground striking by leaps and bounds. Nowadays, when Nurmagomedov takes down someone, they stay down. Johnson, for example, was technically only taken down twice. Despite this unassuming number, Johnson spent eight and a half of the 12 minutes the bout lasted being controlled by Nurmagomedov; and he was not just controlled but fully pinned, usually with one arm trapped so that he could not defend himself from the barrage of devastating blows rained down by the Dagestani fighter.

Ferguson is a wrestler but rarely shoots takedowns of his own, and he does not rely on the same sprawling tactics that Nurmagomedov is used to seeing. Ferguson employs what is called in the wrestling world “funk,” rolling and flowing with the energy of his opponents’ takedowns rather than meeting them with force. This makes him a slippery scrambler, and he is apt to sneak in submissions when his opponents scramble after him. Still, Nurmagomedov brings an entirely different level of wrestling and control to the table. If Ferguson winds up on his back, as he did in his close fight with Danny Castillo in 2014, he will likely stay there.

Thus the final factor in this fight -- and perhaps the most important -- is stamina. Ferguson’s gas tank is impeccable. When fighting dos Anjos in the polluted heights of Mexico City, “El Cucuy” threw an unbelievable 401 significant strikes. Instead of succumbing to the brutal conditions, he actually picked up his pace as the fight went on, attacking more and landing at a higher clip well after the end of the first round. Nurmagomedov seems to possess similar cardio, but doubts remain. “The Eagle” has never participated in a five-round fight, and his body language in the past has suggested that he does slow down, except that his opponents are always the more exhausted of the two. If Ferguson maintains his energy while Nurmagomedov fades, even a dominant performance from the Dagestani could be turned around. Then again, if Nurmagomedov’s takedown game is as unstoppable as it has seemed in the past, then that may not be an issue. Lively or not, even Ferguson will struggle to escape once Nurmagomedov puts him on his back.

THE ODDS: Nurmagomedov (-200), Ferguson (+165)

THE PICK: I cannot tell you how many times I have flip-flopped on this fight, which is precisely why I am so excited for it. Ferguson is capable of doing more things than Nurmagomedov, and he has a decided advantage on the feet, but the Dagestani grappler’s specialties are clearly more profound. Ferguson tends to scrap with most opponents, whereas Nurmagomedov goes through a brief feeling-out period before dominating the rest of the bout. Ferguson has his funk, but Nurmagomedov is an excellent scrambler, as well as a multi-faceted wrestler. He has shown an ability to hit takedowns whether advancing or retreating, and his striking actually becomes quite dangerous once the takedowns are established. I also remember well how easily Ferguson was pinned by Castillo. Though the same has not happened since, I am counting on Nurmagomedov to find the tall man’s hips early and often, solidifying a lead even “El Cucuy” himself cannot ultimately overcome. Nurmagomedov by fourth-round submission is the pick.

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