Preview: UFC 292 ‘Sterling vs. O’Malley’

UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship

#3 P4P | Weili Zhang (23-3, 7-2 UFC) vs. #14 P4P | Amanda Lemos (13-2-1, 7-2 UFC)

ODDS: Zhang (-305), Lemos (+245)

Given that it has historically been the UFC’s most exciting division on the women’s side, it is nice to see the title picture at strawweight finally get moving again beyond it also being fun to finally see Zhang back in action. Zhang came to the UFC in 2018 and was expected to make a quick impact, but it was still surprising to see her make her way to a title shot in a little over a year. A powerhouse of an athlete, Zhang put together some strong performances, but her being named Jessica Andrade’s top challenger seemed like the UFC going out of its way to try and make a potential Chinese star. However, given the opportunity, “Magnum” certainly proved she belonged at the top of the division once she got there, knocking out Andrade in just 42 seconds to become strawweight champion. After her first title defense in a five-round war against Joanna Jedrzejczyk that ranks as one of the greatest fights of all-time, Zhang looked to be on her way to something special, but instead, things mostly stalled out for the last two years. The pandemic kept Zhang out of action for 13 months, and she was knocked out in just 78 seconds by Rose Namajunas upon her return, setting up an immediate rematch that “Thug Rose” narrowly won. For as badly as 2021 went for Zhang, 2022 was just as strong a rebound, with the Black Tiger Fight Club product sending Jedrzejczyk into retirement and running through Carla Esparza to get her belt back in November. There was not an obvious next challenger for Zhang at the time, so it took surprisingly long for the UFC to settle on Lemos as the No. 1 contender; and while a few contenders have popped up in the meantime—most notably Zhang’s countrywoman Xiaonan Yan—Lemos is still a dangerous challenger that should not be overlooked.

Lemos’ rise to strawweight contention certainly came out of nowhere, particularly after how her UFC career started. The Brazilian debuted as a bantamweight and did not show much in losing to Leslie Smith in 2017, then failed a drug test and spent the next two years out of action. It was a bit of a surprise when Lemos’ eventual return came down at strawweight, but she made the weight fine and looked like an absolute powerhouse in running through Miranda Granger, at which point “Amandinha” racked up wins and never really looked back. A 2021 victory over Angela Hill affirmed that Lemos was for real as a contender, and even her follow-up loss to Andrade—her only defeat in the UFC at strawweight—came with some positives. Lemos looked sharp up until the point that Andrade busted out a standing arm-triangle from out of nowhere. Lemos’ subsequent two wins, a submission of Michelle Waterson-Gomez and knockout of Marina Rodriguez, continued to affirm that she has a rare level of finishing ability for a strawweight, and that alone makes this fight interesting. Zhang may be the overall better fighter with more cardio and technical depth, but she often neglects her defense while imposing her physical will on her opponent, and Lemos is one of the few foes who can make her pay for that in one singular moment. At the end of the day, Zhang is a rightful favored to survive and outlast Lemos in a quick but tough fight, but the challenger can easily pull off the upset at a time when she seems to be an afterthought. The pick is Zhang via first-round stoppage.

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Sterling vs. O’Malley
Zhang vs. Lemos
Garry vs. Magny
Blackshear vs. Bautista
Vera vs. Munhoz
The Prelims