Preview: UFC 292 ‘Sterling vs. O’Malley’

Bantamweights

#6 BW | Marlon Vera (20-8-1, 14-7 UFC) vs. #10 BW | Pedro Munhoz (20-7, 10-7 UFC)

ODDS: Vera (-198), Munhoz (+164)

This was not the original plan but still wound up as an intriguing confrontation that gives Vera a chance at a bounce-back win and Munhoz an opportunity to break back into the bantamweight zeitgeist. Vera has certainly had a journey up the ladder towards relevance, starting as a baby-faced grappling specialist and eventually developing into a monolith with a low-volume, high-power game. Vera first made a leap in 2016 but had a few false starts from there as a potential contender, only truly breaking through with a 2021 win over Frankie Edgar that would follow the blueprint of Vera’s subsequent success. “Chito” clearly lost the majority of the fight but found one huge knockout blow—in this case a front kick to the face—to end things with a definitive victory. Vera’s 2022 win over Rob Font was an impressive bit of business. Vera clearly won a five-round decision despite being outstruck handily, thanks to the additional impact of his blows. A subsequent knockout of Dominick Cruz had the Ecuadorian on the fringes of the title picture heading into 2023. However, March was where Vera’s approach hit its ceiling, as Cory Sandhagen had the combination of wrestling, durability and volume to effectively neutralize Vera’s game and prevent an eventual turnaround. Vera still has the skill to work his way to a title shot with the right matchups, and that path starts against a late replacement in Munhoz.

Munhoz worked his way up to fringe contender status in 2019 on the back of a fairly simple approach. As one of the most durable fighters on the roster, “The Young Punisher” would march through his opponent’s offense and throw power, either finding the knockout or hoping to bait his opponent into a takedown, at which point Munhoz would unleash a particularly effective guillotine choke. Once Munhoz found himself in some high-profile fights, he hit a hard ceiling as many opponents were able to just outmaneuver the Brazilian’s constant pressure and force him into a constant chase. Even a stout wrestler like Edgar managed to fight against type and eke out a decision. Munhoz’s last few fights have put him in an odd spot, attempting to add some diversity to his game without taking away his effectiveness, and it has been a mixed bag. An eventual no contest against Sean O’Malley never really got going, and while an April win over Chris Gutierrez might have been a tough matchup for the classic version of Munhoz, it was a decision victory that quickly settled into an uninteresting simmer. This is still a fascinating fight simply due to Munhoz’s durability, as Vera finding a knockout would be truly impressive. However, Vera's size and power advantages—along with the fact that Munhoz still seems to be ironing out his next evolution—give “Chito” the nod in terms of separating himself on the scorecards. The pick is Vera via decision.

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Sterling vs. O’Malley
Zhang vs. Lemos
Garry vs. Magny
Blackshear vs. Bautista
Vera vs. Munhoz
The Prelims