Zhang is in an interesting spot at the moment, as the strawweight
champ has mostly done well to turn back all comers, save one
notable exception, but hasn’t felt completely dominant—a feeling
that carries into this next fight. The UFC’s first real push into
China circa 2014 was a complete bust, but the second wave of
Chinese talent to hit the Octagon proved much more capable, and it
was led by Zhang. She wasn’t quite the overwhelming wrecking ball
she was in her rise to top prospect status, but it quickly became
apparent that few could hang with “Magnum” athletically despite
some holes in her game. The UFC also wasted little time in seeing
if Zhang could hang among the strawweight elite. As soon as she got
one credible win over Tecia
Pennington, Zhang was immediately rushed into a title shot
against Jessica
Andrade, which ended in a 42-second knockout that made her the
UFC’s first Chinese champion just 13 months after her promotional
debut. Zhang was still a bit of an unknown but affirmed herself as
an elite and must-watch fighter in her first title defense—a
five-round war against Joanna
Jedrzejczyk that ranks among the best fights of all-time.
However, Zhang didn’t get much of an opportunity to build on that
momentum. The coronavirus pandemic left her frozen out of the UFC’s
schedule, and 2021 saw her suffer two losses to Rose
Namajunas, first by a quick knockout and then in a close but
sloppy decision. With Namajunas later losing the title to Carla
Esparza in an all-time stinker and then moving up to flyweight,
Zhang has been able to rebound and assert her dominance without
much trouble, beating Jedrzejczyk in a rematch, taking the
championship from Esparza and clearly winning title defenses
against Amanda
Lemos and Yan Xiaonan. There have been some rough moments for
Zhang in the latter two fights, but those have mostly come late in
those respective title defenses, with her own success seeming to
exhaust her. That’s an issue that could be exploitable by the right
opponent. Zhang has elite-level horsepower and can turn up the
aggression, but her main priority seems to be asserting control.
That’s causing her to pivot more and more to her wrestling, which,
when combined with the tension she can feel on the feet, does seem
to sap her gas tank. Suarez could wind up being the right opponent
to thread that needle, but the American has her own questions to
answer.
An Olympic-level amateur wrestler who had her career derailed due
to thyroid cancer, Suarez was about as blue-chip as blue-chip
prospects get when she won “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2016. However,
her mixed martial arts career has also been consistently derailed,
this time thanks to repeated injuries. Suarez has nine years on the
UFC roster, but this shot at Zhang would mark only her eighth trip
to the Octagon. Suarez has only had consistent health during a
two-year stretch from 2017 to 2019, at which point she looked like
a problem for anyone in the strawweight division. Her wrestling and
grappling made her an absolute terror, with finishes of Esparza and
eventual flyweight champ Alexa
Grasso standing out as particularly impressive pieces of work.
However, her two fights in 2023—she was returning after a three and
a half-year layoff—were a bit more of a mixed bag. Suarez is still
excellent on the mat, but she looked a bit flatter athletically and
her striking has seemed to stall out to the point that it isn’t
much of a backup plan. The path to victory for Suarez certainly
exists here, as she can establish herself as the stronger wrestler
early and, assuming she doesn’t just get a quick submission finish,
can potentially sap Zhang’s gas tank to stay ahead of her in the
process. With that said, if Suarez herself starts to tire or has
her takedowns stuffed a few times, there are plenty of questions as
to how well she will be able to keep things up for 25 minutes
against the hardest-hitting opponent of her career. Picks for
Suarez are quite understandable, but her coming off these extended
layoffs with all these question marks and potential downsides make
it hard to pull the trigger on that call. The pick is Zhang via
decision.
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