Preview: PFL 7, 2022 Playoffs

Lightweights

Olivier Aubin-Mercier (15-5, 4-0 PFL) vs. Alex Martinez (10-2, 3-2 PFL)

ODDS: Aubin-Mercier (-240), Martinez (+190)

Aubin-Mercier had a difficult run at the end of his Ultimate Fighting Championship tenure, falling to Alexander Hernandez, Gilbert Burns and Arman Tsarukyan in succession. “The Canadian Gangster” has turned things around in the PFL, earning four consecutive victories—including back-to-back triumphs over the last two lightweight champions in Natan Schulte and Raush Manfio. These wins were not works of art, but Aubin-Mercier has improved his standup enough that he can prevail in fights in which his grappling is neutralized. That being said, Aubin-Mercier mixes his punches and kicks reasonably well—body kicks in particular were successful against Manfio—but he is not going to put anyone away on the feet. “The Ultimate Fighter Nations” finalist is at his best when he can initiate clinches, pursue takedowns and force scrambles. As the level of competition has improved, Aubin-Mercier has found it more difficult to impose his will in this fashion. Fortunately, he is now competent enough on the feet to have another avenue if he cannot get the fight into his comfort zone.

Martinez was probably fortunate to get a split decision against Clay Collard in his last outing, but that is also a testament to the Paraguay native’s style. Martinez is a well-rounded competitor who transitions relatively well between the phases of MMA. He’s not dominant in any one area, but he never appears out of his depth, either, which is why he has been competitive against a difficult PFL slate of opponents that includes Schulte, Steven Ray and Loik Radzhabov (twice). Martinez works behind a solid jab and a variety of kicks, and he will likely feed Aubin-Mercier a steady diet of low kicks, because Schulte had success with this technique against the UFC veteran. Though Martinez is willing to threaten with submissions in scrambles, he will not want to risk allowing Aubin-Mercier to make it a grinding affair through clinches and takedowns. Aubin-Mercier is capable of landing heavy strikes on occasions, but Martinez has a slight reach advantage and is a little more fluid striker. However, Aubin-Mercier will not fear his opponent’s power, which should allow him to close the distance effectively. Both of these athletes are accustomed to close fights, and this has the looks of another one that will be difficult to call. It is hard to bet against Aubin-Mercier, who seems adept at finding ways to win—ugly as it may be. The pick is Aubin-Mercier in a narrow decision triumph.

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Ray vs. Pettis
Silveira vs. Akhmedov
Aubin-Mercier vs. Martinez
Wilkinson vs. Monte
The Prelims
Qualifiers