Preview: UFC 214 ‘Cormier vs. Jones 2’

Women’s Featherweights

Cristiane Justino (17-1) vs. Tonya Evinger (19-5)

THE MATCHUP: With the short-notice withdrawal of Invicta Fighting Championships featherweight titleholder Megan Anderson, Justino was left without an opponent. Let us give a round of applause then to Evinger, Invicta’s bantamweight champion and a woman who truly does not give a damn.

I say this, of course, because a short-notice fight against Justino is a very risky task. “Cyborg” is a muay Thai fighter with a distinctly Brazilian style. Moving freely around the cage, she springs in with short combinations and crushing kicks. As her career has progressed, so too has her technical proficiency. These days, with the brilliant Jason Parillo in her corner, she sets up her devastating strikes with subtle angles, convincing feints and efficient head movement, much of it built into her punches. Though pressure is her usual mode of operation, Justino has proven herself to be a capable counterpuncher, picking off aggressive opponents with angles and thunderbolt punches.

Evinger has more advantages in her corner than most “Cyborg” opponents. She is a good wrestler, especially in long clinch exchanges and scrambles. She is durable, having never been knocked out. She is also well-conditioned, with the stamina to absorb punishment and yet continue pushing the pace. Evinger also has a good bit of momentum on her side. With a paper-thin roster at featherweight, the criteria for a crack at “Cyborg” have rarely been very stringent. Unlike the typical Justino opponent, Evinger is unbeaten in her last 11 fights, winning and twice defending the Invicta title in the process.

For all of her accomplishments, one must ask the question: What is Evinger’s best path to victory in this fight? Wrestling is her best skill, but to tie up “Cyborg” in the clinch, she will need to pressure her on the feet, but we already know that Justino has efficient footwork and good counterpunching. To do damage and pursue submissions, Evinger will need to take down “Cyborg,” but the Brazilian is a good wrestler and scrambler who very rarely ends up or stays on her back for long. She is also an accomplished submission grappler, with an International Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu Federation purple belt championship on her mantle. Through all of this, Evinger would normally be wearing out her opponent out, and yet “Cyborg” has shown excellent conditioning in the past, particularly in her fourth-round TKO of Marloes Coenen in 2013. Evinger is as tough as they come, but these are some big hurdles and every one of them is emphasized by “Cyborg’s” considerable size and strength advantage.

THE ODDS: Justino (-1227), Evinger (+660)

THE PICK: Evinger will pressure. She will shoot and scramble and grind. She will even try to land bombs on the feet. At all times, however, she will be in the sights of women’s MMA’s most dangerous striker. “Cyborg” is a technician and a physical specimen, her practiced footwork and sharp combinations augmented by explosive speed and crushing power. She is a good enough wrestler to stop most of Evinger’s shots and has never really slowed down, despite her penchant for first-round finishes. Evinger’s chin will be tested, and while it is a good chin, “Cyborg” is big, powerful and accurate. The pick is Justino by TKO in round two.

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