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Bantamweights

John Castaneda (19-6, 2-2 UFC) vs. Muin Gafurov (18-4, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: N/A

Bantamweight continues to be one of the best divisions in the sport, as this should be a fun one between two unheralded fighters. Castaneda was on the fringes of a UFC call-up for a while before finally getting the late-notice shot in 2020, at which point “Sexi Mexi” proved himself to be a solid entrant on a deep roster. Castaneda is firmly in the jack of all trades and master of none camp at the UFC level, but he brings enough pace and scrappiness to the table to eventually land on his opponent’s weaknesses. He has also shown a surprising amount of knockout power during his time in the Octagon, starching Eddie Wineland and Miles Johns in his wins and nearly finishing Daniel Santos in his last fight, which saw the Brazilian stage a comeback for the win in a back-and-forth brawl. Initially slated for a potential rebound against Mateus Mendonca, Castaneda gets a much different—though just as tough—replacement in Gafurov. Depending on your perspective, Gafurov could be considered the first Tajik fighter in the UFC. He was theoretically signed and slated to make his UFC debut opposite Movsar Evloev in 2019 but had that scrapped thanks to pre-existing contractual obligations with One Championship. At any rate, once he was free and clear of those ties, Gafurov wound up falling short in a surprising upset loss to Chad Anheliger on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2021. However, he has recaptured his momentum with an undefeated 2022 campaign that has made him look ready for the big stage. Gafurov has shown some crushing wrestling, particularly down at 135 pounds, with enough knockout power to either keep opponents honest or end his fights outright. It is not a particularly high-paced style, which makes for an interesting matchup in his Octagon debut, particularly given how Gafurov’s fight with Anheliger went. Gafurov was clearly the better wrestler of the two, but Anheliger brought enough grappling skill to the table to prevent the Tajik from banking much control time and slowing the fight down. He outlasted Gafurov while also outpacing him on the feet. If Castaneda can make any hay in neutralizing Gafurov’s wrestling, it is easy to see him following a similar blueprint to a victory. With that said, the lean is that Gafurov brings enough physicality to the table to at least control two rounds, even if the third could see some rough going. The pick is Gafurov via decision.

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