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Women’s Strawweights

Elise Reed (6-3, 2-3 UFC) vs. Jinh Yu Frey (11-8, 2-4 UFC)

ODDS: Reed (-130), Frey (+110)

Frey’s UFC run has been frustrating, though it is still worth appreciating that the longtime top atomweight even got this shot. Given that Frey has long plied her trade at 105 pounds, it was a surprise when she got the UFC call in 2020 despite a career with some consistent success. Frey is obviously a physical force, even at 115 pounds, which is what she has needed to leverage to put together her wins. While she packs a wallop, she is a reticent striker, often looking to clinch up, outwrestle and just generally neutralize her opponents through sheer strength. With the move up in weight, what were already thin margins have now gotten even thinner against larger and more dynamic opposition. Coming off of a 47-second knockout loss to Polyana Viana in November, the worry is things may start to go south for Frey in a host of other ways. Of course, it remains unclear if any of that will matter against Reed, who also started her pro career as an atomweight and whose strawweight campaign has been marked by issues with physicality as a result. It seems that Reed is in the class of fighter where either everything is clicking or things are going wildly off the rails. Given a wrestling advantage, she can pour on a volume-heavy striking game and overwhelm her opponent in all facets, but her three pro losses have all come against opponents who can take her to the mat and either pour on damage or find a submission. That could make this a forgiving matchup for Frey, but she is still the much less trustworthy fighter. For one, it may be up to Reed to initiate the wrestling exchanges that the Fortis MMA rep can take advantage of, and it is unclear if Frey can turn that into any sort of offensive dominance. Reed may just walk into a loss, but the bet is that she strings together enough activity to win rounds and generally fights smart enough to coast to a winning performance. The pick is Reed via decision.

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