Preview: UFC 302 ‘Makhachev vs. Poirier’

Order Now! UFC 302 "Makhachev vs. Poirier" Saturday at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+

Heavyweights

#7 HW | Jailton Almeida (20-3, 6-1 UFC) vs. #13 HW | Alexander Romanov (17-2, 6-2 UFC)

ODDS: Almeida (-278), Romanov (+225)

Almeida might have failed his first big test, but he should stay in the upper crust of the UFC’s heavyweight division going forward. “Malhadinho” came into the UFC as a top light heavyweight prospect and essentially moved up a division on a lark. Almeida needed a replacement opponent, and heavyweight Parker Porter was the only man to step up. Almeida’s approach has always centered around his aggressive wrestling and grappling attack, so once a one-sided win over Porter proved that the Brazilian was able to bully heavyweight-sized opponents, there was every reason to try and make a charge up the ranks in a heavier division. After running through a few more heavyweight opponents, Almeida’s win over Derrick Lewis in November was the first sign of some potential trouble. Almeida dominated the fight for five rounds, but it was a bit worrying that he was unable to find a submission over the course of 25 minutes. Then came the Brazilian’s bout against Curtis Blaydes in March, which saw Almeida impressively outwrestle the Elevation Fight Team rep for a round until he charged into a knockout while attempting a takedown near the start of the second stanza. Almeida looks to rebound against Romanov in a winnable fight that’s just tough enough to be interesting, even if there are some questions about exactly where the Moldovan stands at the moment.

Order Now! UFC 302 "Makhachev vs. Poirier" Saturday at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+

Romanov has also made his hay overwhelming opponents with an aggressive wrestling attack. Despite his unimpressive frame, Romanov seems to have some natural agility and athleticism, and his regional career was marked by a surprising level of cardio while wearing out his opposition. Romanov started his UFC career by racking up five straight wins with little issue—even if his gas tank was a bit less reliable than in the past—before hitting the wall hard in a 2022 loss to Marcin Tybura. Romanov got off to a dominant start, but some combination of Tybura’s resistance and the elevation of Salt Lake City left “King Kong” exhausted after a round and a sitting duck for a decision loss. That was an understandable defeat, as was a subsequent loss to Alexander Volkov in March 2023, though the Volkov fight did raise a whole new set of concerns. Romanov looked in terrible condition and folded quickly against Volkov’s offense. Romanov didn’t look much better aesthetically against Blagoy Ivanov in July, but he put forth a much better performance, with the Moldovan putting together a shockingly consistent three-round effort for a clear decision victory. It’s hard to know what version of Romanov will show up, but this does look like Almeida’s fight to lose no matter what. It could start off as an ugly wrestling and grappling match regardless of who gets the jump on the other, but Almeida’s gas tank figures to hold up better over the long haul. The pick is Almeida via second-round submission.

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Makhachev vs. Poirier
Strickland vs. Costa
Holland vs. Oleksiejczuk
Almeida vs. Romanov
Brown vs. dos Santos
The Prelims