Preview: UFC Fight Night 207 Prelims

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Bantamweights

Tony Gravely (22-7, 3-2 UFC) vs. Johnny Munoz Jr. (11-1, 1-1 UFC)

ODDS: Gravely (-135), Munoz Jr. (+115)

This is an interesting fight on paper, even though it may be a bit gnarly in practice. Gravely came to the UFC with an impressive resume. Despite spending just four years as a pro when he earned a contract via Dana White’s Contender Series in 2019, Gravely packed in plenty of fights against a particularly strong level of competition. While his record was not the cleanest, Gravely figured to have a game that would serve him well moving up a level. A collegiate wrestler, Gravely built out some solid striking to round everything out. When everything clicks, Gravely looks excellent, as he is able to bully his opponents while making them wilt under constant pressure. However, when Gravely does not have an obvious path to his wrestling success, things start to fall apart. It was an encouraging sign that he was able to go tit-for-tat with Brett Johns in an absolute war, but his September loss to Nathan Maness was a worrying sign, as Maness was able to neutralize Gravely’s wrestling and score a second-round knockout. After rebounding with a January win over Saimon Oliveira, it is hard to parse exactly what all those factors mean for Gravely in this assignment. Munoz took a clear step up to UFC-level competition with a late-notice debut against Maness in August 2020. Prior to that, “Kid Kvenbo” got by on working for takedowns and submissions against overmatched opponents. Following that gameplan against Maness exposed the flaws in Munoz’s approach. While Munoz racked up significant control time against Maness, he did not do much to turn that into any sort of effective offense. Despite Munoz dictating most of the fight, Maness was able to get the decision win just by attempting to do things wherever he could. Munoz did rebound with a win over Jamey Simmons in 2021, but that did not do much in terms of answering questions about the efficacy of Munoz’s approach. Munoz had the clear athletic and grappling advantages and used both to score a second-round submission. Munoz figures to have the chops to neutralize Gravely’s wrestling, and everything from there is unclear. That is probably enough to send Gravely into a less effective approach, but at the same time, it is uncertain if Munoz can leverage that into any sort of round-winning advantage without an ability to score a submission. Gravely still figures to be the better striker, even in a low-volume affair, so he gets the nod, but this could be an ugly one. The pick is Gravely via decision.

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