Preview: UFC on Fox 17 ‘Dos Anjos vs. Cerrone 2’

Featherweights

Charles Oliveira (20-5) vs Myles Jury (15-1): Jury posted some good wins under Eric Del Fierro and Alliance MMA, but a January loss to Donald Cerrone revealed that the man behind Dominick Cruz may not have known how best to cultivate his boxer-puncher style. Whether it will help remains to be seen, but Jury has since dropped to 145 pounds and joined fighters like Ryan Bader and Michael Chandler at Power MMA. As long as Jury does not suddenly lose a significant portion of the boxing ability he developed at Alliance, he should be able to handle Oliveira on the feet. Oliveira is offense incarnate, constantly marching forward into the clinch with knees, elbows and stiff punches. On the ground, he is one of the rare modern MMA fighters aggressive enough to get away with playing guard, and there are few in the division who can survive Oliveira’s gung-ho grappling. Still, Oliveira attacks in straight lines, stands stock straight in the pocket and never moves his head. He will be an inviting target for Jury, who should be looking to lace straight punches through Oliveira’s guard at every opportunity, denying him the chance to drag this fight to the ground. The pick is Jury by TKO in round three.

Middleweights

C.B. Dollaway (15-7) vs Nate Marquardt (33-15-2): Before succumbing to Lyoto Machida and Michael Bisping, Dollaway was on what should have been a five-fight winning streak, dominating his fights with his steadily improving boxing and his ever-reliable wrestling. Despite the defeats, the 32 year-old still seems to be refining his game, whereas Marquardt is decidedly less great than he used to be. At 36, Marquardt enters his 51st professional fight with a 1-4 record since returning to the UFC in 2013. Three of those four losses came via knockout, and he was badly outwrestled in the last two. Those are poor omens for this fight and provide more than enough evidence to pick Dollaway by KO in round two.

Women’s Bantamweights

Sarah Kaufman (17-3) vs Valentina Shevchenko (11-1): The women’s bantamweight division finally gets some new blood, and Shevchenko is being pitted against one of its true veterans. Kaufman is in many ways one of the most reliable fighters in the UFC. She throws lots of volume, looks to counter with her right hand and grinds away in the clinch. It is an effective approach, and Kaufman rarely changes it up. When looking at Shevchenko’s last fight -- a tepid decision win over journeywoman Jan Finney -- a volume puncher like Kaufman might seem like a bad matchup. On the contrary, however, as Finney was far too reluctant to engage, forcing the counterstriker Shevchenko to methodically outpoint her from range. By staying in Shevchenko’s face, Kaufman will give the Kyrgyzstani southpaw lots of opportunities to sneak in her trademark counter right hook. Shevchenko is a strong wrestler who should be able to keep the fight standing, where her cleaner striking gives her the edge. She wins a unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Josh Samman (12-2) vs Tamdan McCrory (13-3): After a five-year absence from MMA, McCrory looked better than ever in two dominant Bellator MMA wins. Looks can be deceiving, and McCrory spent only a minute in a half in both of those fights combined. However, he seems to have tightened up his aggressive guard game and put some polish on his combination boxing, which was always his most dangerous skill set. Samman is a far tougher test than Brennan Ward, however, and his newfound love of range boxing, stance-switching and powerful kicks should prove too much for McCrory, who is really only dangerous at one range. The pick is Samman by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Nik Lentz (25-7-2) vs Danny Castillo (17-9): Lentz has had a tough schedule, comprising 35 fights and 10 years of professional experience. At just 31 years old, however, Lentz seems to be just now entering his athletic prime, and his technique has improved, as well. Lentz now possesses some very respectable boxing that helps him to implement his stifling wrestling game. Castillo seemed to be on the cusp of his own technical renaissance when he nearly crushed Edson Barboza and successfully blew away Charlie Brenneman in 2014, but three straight losses since have indicated that his 36 years may be catching up to him. Castillo’s lack of urgency has been one of his biggest problems, and that is a bad issue to have against a non-stop swarmer like Lentz. The pick is Lentz by unanimous decision.

Featherweights

Cole Miller (21-9) vs Jim Alers (13-2): If I could choose two words to describe Alers, they would be “dangerous,” and “stiff.” The Floridian packs a punch, wrestles when he needs to and has a knack for submissions, particularly the guillotine and the rear-naked choke, with which he has finished four of his fights. His problem is largely defensive. Alers’ head never leaves the center line, and the stiffness of his attacks makes him relatively easy to time. When pressed, Alers tends to retreat on a straight line. With long arms and the training to use them, Miller should have no trouble peppering Alers from long range. Miller has good takedown defense, but he is also one of the few fighters in the UFC with a guard game aggressive enough to be worth playing, so Alers will not be able to save himself with a well-timed takedown. Miller wins by TKO in round two.

Welterweights

Leon Edwards (10-2) vs Kamaru Usman (6-1): Edwards and Usman are bringing back the timeless striker-versus-grappler matchup. Though he rarely throws in combination, there is little to complain about in Edwards’ kickboxing. He is quick and powerful; he uses his footwork to manage distance and find angles; and he has excellent timing and accuracy from both stances. He is a fairly sound wrestler, but the holes in his ground game should give Usman a clear target. Usman is a massive welterweight and bigger than the diminutive Edwards in just about every dimension. His style is aggressive, built on the foundation of his wrestling. Usman is every bit as athletic as Edwards and almost certainly stronger, with a tightly focused idea of what to do at range, in the clinch and on the ground. Edwards could land a big shot, but even then, he will have to be cautious of Usman’s grappling, and I do not think he can avoid it. Usman wins via third-round submission.

Welterweights

Hayder Hassan (6-2) vs Vicente Luque (7-5-1): Having both lost in their UFC debuts, “The Ultimate Fighter 21” competitors Hassan and Luque meet in a rematch of one of the season’s best fights. Luque is the picture of a well-rounded fighter, with the mixed record of knockouts and submissions to prove it. He throws in combination, shoots for takedowns and looks for front headlock submissions on the ground. Hassan’s game has a much more singular focus: hitting really hard. Hassan is something of an outdated model. He loves to strike but does not have the wrestling to keep himself on his feet. Many felt Luque should have won the first fight between these two, and he seems like a strong pick to win the rematch. Luque by unanimous decision is the pick.

Heavyweights

Luis Henrique Barbosa de Oliveira (8-1) vs Francis Ngannou (5-1): The card opens with two new additions to the UFC’s anemic heavyweight division, and as you might expect, both men are extremely raw. As such, this bout is best understood in terms of sheer physical talent, in which case Ngannou has the clear advantage. The French heavyweight is quick and explosive, a sharp contrast to Oliveira’s awkward stiffness. Oliveira is only 22, so he could have already made vast improvements to his game, but past fights suggest that Ngannou is simply the more natural fighter. He wins by second-round submission.

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