UFC on Fox 12 Preview

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Lightweights

Daron Cruickshank (15-4, 5-2 UFC) vs. Jorge Masvidal (26-8, 3-1 UFC): The prelim headliner should be a barnburner between two talented strikers. Masvidal has fought just about everybody in his 10-year career, and Cruickshank is very much on the rise following a head-kick knockout of Erik Koch. Masvidal has more skills in his arsenal, however, with the ability to wrestle effectively and surprisingly strong grappling chops to complement his clean, technical punching combinations on the feet. Cruickshank’s kick-heavy style makes it difficult to maintain a pace over three rounds. Combined with Masvidal’s tendency to get stronger as the fight goes on, it pushes the needle in the Cuban-American’s direction. The skill gap in wrestling and grappling, along with oodles of high-level experience, firmly tip the balance in favor of Masvidal getting a unanimous decision in a close, hard-fought contest.

Light Heavyweights

Patrick Cummins (5-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (11-5, 4-4 UFC): Kingsbury makes his return to the UFC after nearly two years of retirement and an increasingly ugly run, going 1-3 over his last four, with a gift decision over Fabio Maldonado as his only win in that stretch. Cummins might not have put on a great show against Daniel Cormier on short notice, but make no mistake, he is a superb wrestler with great athleticism and power in his strikes. Kingsbury is notable mostly for being a relatively well-rounded athlete, but there is no reason to think a guy who was repeatedly taken down by Stephan Bonnar will be able to stay off his back against a wrestler of Cummins’ caliber. Cummins will take him down repeatedly and work potent ground-and-pound for a second-round stoppage.

Welterweights

Hernani Perpetuo (17-4, 0-1 UFC) vs. Tim Means (20-6-1, 2-3 UFC): Two talented-in-theory-but-underwhelming-in-practice strikers go to work here in what could be an exciting fight. Both fighters, however, have had trouble pulling the trigger in their recent outings, and this could turn into a staring contest if neither guy gets off his shots. In cases like this, I take the fighter who seems more talented, and I think that is Perpetuo. He wins by unanimous decision.

Featherweights

Mike de la Torre (12-4, 0-1 UFC) vs. Brian Ortega (8-0, 0-0 UFC): De la Torre put on a surprisingly tough performance against Mark Bocek on extremely short notice back in April, but he faces a stiff test here against a former Resurrection Fighting Alliance champion in Ortega. While the blue-chip prospect Ortega will be giving up size to de la Torre, likely for the first time in his career, he is simply the more complete fighter here. He is a nicely developing striker with solid wrestling, a dangerous guard and absolutely venomous submissions. I think de la Torre will fall victim to one here. Ortega wins by triangle choke submission in round one.

Lightweights

Tiago dos Santos e Silva (18-4-2, 0-0 UFC) vs. Akbarh Arreola (22-7-1, 0-0 UFC): “Trator,” the Jungle Fight lightweight champion, takes on veteran Mexican journeyman Arreola in a battle between UFC rookies. While Arreola has fought solid competition -- Mac Danzig, Toby Imada, Brent Weedman, Ronys Torres and UFC signee Juan Manuel Puig come to mind -- in his career, he has come out on the losing end in all of those fights. “Trator” has fought much better competition, has a well-rounded mix of striking and submissions and possesses decent wrestling. That should be enough for him to take a unanimous decision.

Featherweights

Steven Siler (23-12, 5-3 UFC) vs. Noad Lahat (7-1, 0-1 UFC): Both fighters are coming off knockout losses. Lahat got pasted by a Godofredo Pepey flying knee in his last outing, while Siler ate a few big punches from Rony Mariano Bezerra for a controversial stoppage. Lahat might be the more talented fighter -- the American Kickboxing Academy product had some hype around him before his ignominious first-round exit in March -- but Siler’s mixture of good-enough striking, volume and slick submissions should give him the advantage here. Siler takes a unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Andreas Stahl (9-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. Gilbert Burns (7-0, 0-0 UFC): This is an interesting battle of undefeated prospects, both of whom have some hype surrounding them. Stahl offers the now-standard Swedish mixture of competent striking, wrestling and grappling, while Burns has world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu, solid wrestling and powerful striking that features more enthusiasm than skill, all wrapped up in the body of an absolutely outstanding athlete. I think that speed and explosiveness will overcome the size disadvantage -- Burns usually fights at lightweight -- and allow Burns to work a takedown and then a violent submission in the first round.

Women’s Strawweights

Juliana de Lima Carneiro (6-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk (6-0, 0-0 UFC): The Polish Jedrzejczyk and Brazilian Lima make their UFC debuts in the second-ever women’s strawweight contest inside the Octagon. Jedrzejczyk is younger, has beaten much better competition and, coming down from 125 pounds, should have a size advantage, as well. Jedrzejczyk wins a unanimous decision.