Preview: UFC Fight Night 207 ‘Volkov vs. Rozenstruik’

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Women’s Strawweights

Felice Herrig (14-9, 5-4 UFC) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (12-7, 5-7 UFC)

ODDS: Herrig (-120), Kowalkiewicz (+100)

The vibes are not exactly great heading into this rematch. Their first fight at UFC 223 in 2018 was important enough to get the winner on the fringes of the title picture. Kowalkiewicz was a recent title challenger herself, and Herrig was riding an impressive four-fight winning streak as part of a career renaissance. Kowalkiewicz won a decision in her usual ways, and nothing has gone right for either woman since, with the two combining to lose all seven of their fights in the four-plus years that have followed. It has been a particularly drastic fall for Kowalkiewicz, whose game always worked much better than it should. The Pole did not appear to be the best athlete and had an awkward striking game, but a combination of persistence, durability and a shocking level of strength was enough for her to gut out wins, including her breakout 2016 victory over Rose Namajunas. After beating Herrig, Kowalkiewicz’s next fight saw her brutally get knocked out by Jessica Andrade in a shade under two minutes, a result which has seemingly derailed her career. Whether it is physical or mental, Kowalkiewicz has looked slower and more tentative in losses to Michelle Waterson, Alexa Grasso and Xiaonan Yan, the last of which saw her eat a horrific level of abuse and suffer a severe eye injury that kept her out of action for a year and a half. Kowalkiewicz then got outgrappled and tapped by Jessica Penne in August, marking a complete erosion of everything that made her contender. At the very least, she has switched things up and moved stateside for this camp, and if nothing else, Herrig has plenty of questions of her own to answer. Herrig was matched with Waterson coming off of her loss to Kowalkiewicz and, like her former and future opponent, also was obviously the lesser athlete in a clear decision loss. That also raised some concerns that Herrig was slowing down after a decade-plus in the game. It is still an open question, given that she has fought only once since 2018. A torn ACL kept Herrig out of action for 2019, and her 2020 return did not offer much about which to talk, as Virna Jandiroba took her down and submitted her in under two minutes. It is hard to tell exactly how much that loss meant—Jandiroba is a talented grappler, but Herrig had also never been finished prior to that fight—and there has been no follow-up since, as Herrig has continued to need work done on her knee. At this point, it seems like anyone can overpower Kowalkiewicz, which in turn makes her whole game fall apart, so Herrig almost has to get the nod by default. With that said, there is also the concern that Herrig may firmly be in the decline phase herself, particularly after two long layoffs. The pick is Herrig via decision.


Jump To »
Volkov vs. Rozenstruik
Evloev vs. Ige
Trizano vs. Almeida
Silva vs. Botelho
Menifield vs. Mozharov
Herrig vs. Kowalkiewicz
The Prelims