This is one of the more interesting fights on the card and an
important matchup for both women. USADA issues delayed Ribas’ UFC
debut for nearly two years, but she looked like a potential star
immediately upon hitting the Octagon in 2019. Beyond her charisma,
she kicked things off with an impressive four-fight winning streak
marked by a victory over the much more hyped Mackenzie
Dern. The Brazilian entered 2021 seemingly poised to become a
strawweight title contender, but those hopes ended almost
immediately. She found some early wrestling success against
Marina
Rodriguez, but suddenly fell victim to a second-round knockout.
Ribas rebounded well by ending the year with a win over Virna
Jandiroba, but 2022 has mostly been a lost year for her, as she
has attempted a move up to flyweight. Her May bout against Katlyn
Chookagian seemingly had the potential to be a one-off
appearance at 125 pounds. Michelle
Waterson-Gomez was forced out of a strawweight bout against
Ribas, so she instead pivoted to a short-notice opportunity up a
weight class. It was an interesting gambit: Ribas could make
herself a contender in a new weight class with just one win, but a
lot of her success at 115 pounds was helped by her ability to bully
and overpower her opposition. Things went fine, as Ribas acquitted
herself well in a loss and dragged a fun fight out of the
often-cautious Chookagian, but it seemed taken for granted that she
would subsequently pick up where she left off at strawweight.
Instead, she sticks around at flyweight for a much different
stylistic matchup here. Cortez seemed like a lock to get a contract
with a win on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2019, thanks to her
marketability and an inspirational life story that made it
near-impossible for UFC President Dana White to deny. Beyond that,
she has come through as a fighter, particularly as an impressively
hard-nosed wrestler. A pre-UFC win over Erin
Blanchfield has aged particularly well as Blanchfield marches
up the flyweight ranks, and Cortez has embraced the grind to win
all four of her UFC fights to date—an impressive bit of business
given that she spent the beginning part of her UFC career as an
undersized bantamweight. She finally moved back down to flyweight
for a fight against Justine
Kish in 2021, and it was a mixed bag. Cortez got the win but
missed weight and definitely had the flattest performance of her
UFC career. Even so, she looked as solid as ever in her most recent
bout, a decision win over Melissa
Gatto in front of her hometown Arizona faithful. This is the
type of fight that is a coinflip on paper but could wind up quite
one-sided in practice, as it all hinges on Cortez’s ability to find
success with her wrestling. Cortez’s striking is still a work in
progress, and Ribas is both aggressive and powerful enough to turn
that into a ton of damage on the feet. If both women were the same
size, this would likely turn out as a Ribas win thanks to her
grappling and judo ability being enough to neutralize Cortez.
However, Cortez is a talented wrestler in her own right, and she
might be a natural bantamweight facing a natural strawweight. The
bet is that Cortez can come out ahead in a grind. The pick is
Cortez via decision.
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