Preview: UFC 286 Prelims

Women’s Flyweights

Joanne Wood (15-8, 7-8 UFC) vs. Luana Carolina (8-3, 3-2 UFC)

ODDS: Wood (-190), Carolina (+160)

It looks like Wood will not wind up getting the title shot she has seemingly been on the verge of earning during her entire UFC career, but it will still be interesting to see what the Scotswoman can do down the home stretch. Wood was an immediate contender when the UFC launched the strawweight division, owing to her successful career in Invicta Fighting Championships and status as a cult favorite, but that fell apart quickly. She likely could have waited out a title shot, particularly with the UFC coming to Glasgow in 2015, but decided to keep busy and instead wound up suffering a massive upset loss to Maryna Moroz. From there, Wood put together a solid if frustrating run with the issues that would mark most of her career. She is not a standout athlete and is willing to march in on her opponents, leading to a lot of even fights that often wind up going against her. Wood moved up to her natural 125-pound weight class as soon as the UFC offered it, and despite the division being wide open for challengers to Valentina Shevchenko, it is almost impressive how close Wood has gotten to a title shot without actually getting over the hump. She has lost five times as a flyweight in the UFC, with each of those opponents getting a title shot within two fights, and even Wood herself was slated to take on Shevchenko prior to the pandemic scuttling those plans. With the wave of younger and more athletic talent working its way up the division, Wood has struggled even more to dictate the terms of her recent fights, though submission losses to Taila Santos and current champion Alexa Grasso now look much better considering their subsequent success against Shevchenko. Wood consciously took a year off to regroup following the Grasso loss, and the UFC has set her up well upon her return. Carolina was a high-upside flier coming off the lone Brazilian edition of Dana White’s Contender Series back in 2018. “Dread” is a lanky fighter with some physical talent, but she was unproven and inexperienced even by DWCS standards. That manifested itself clearly in Carolina’s fights, as her composure had a tendency to fly completely out the window against opponents willing and able to fight back, but she has been able to steel herself mentally in her recent performances and rely on her physical gifts. Surprisingly, a lot of that has come in the form of her wrestling and grappling. She still is not a particularly stout defender of takedowns, but she has proven difficult to control, in part, thanks to her sheer size, which made wrestling a losing approach for both Poliana Botelho and Lupita Godinez. She has also improved on the feet—though her last fight saw her eat a highlight-reel spinning elbow knockout from Molly McCann—so there is a chance she could just outquick Wood and force her into some ineffective pressure. Even if Carolina gets off to a hot start—or if Wood gets off to a slow one—the bet is that she eventually loses enough form that “JoJo” can march her down and establish herself as a more powerful fighter. It might be ugly, but the pick is Wood via decision.

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Wood vs. Carolina
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