Prime Picks: UFC Fight Night 248 ‘Yan vs. Figueiredo’

Most people will end up sleeping through this next Ultimate Fighting Championship offering thanks to its live airtime of 3 a.m. on the east coast. This show is completely tailored for Asia, due to its broadcast and its participants, with much of the lineup made up of the “Road to UFC” tourney. With plenty of unknown fighters in tow, Prime Picks for UFC Macau sticks to its strengths by reading into overvalued favorites and women’s overs.

Deiveson Figueiredo (+255)

There are many schools of thought when it comes to approaching and analyzing betting underdogs. Some like to imagine how the underdog can best get the job done. Others break down the weaknesses of the favorite and how he or she can be exploited. Sometimes, it can be as simple as considering who to pick in the first place. If a fight has one participant hugely favored and it is surprisingly difficult to decide who will get the job done, this can be a sign. In the case of this bantamweight headliner, it is just that. The line is too far apart, with Petr Yan winning once in the last three years compared to a resurgent former flyweight who no longer has to cut down. There is value on the Brazilian, making him the key Prime Pick of the card.

Shifting gears to 135 pounds is something Figueiredo had been planning for quite some time, but an unexpected tetralogy against Brandon Moreno delayed that by a few years. It did not hurt that “Daico” was the sitting champion for a good chunk of those years, even if he did not end the series the ultimate victor; Moreno lost that throne his next time out. With no more flyweight divisional aspirations, the sky turned into the limit for the man with multiple nicknames, and he has proved it thus far. His power has translated well up in weight, with no better indication than his becoming the first fighter to drop Marlon Vera when he battled the Ecuadorian in August. Even if the stoppages have not entirely come, it may be simply level of opposition rather than his firepower or lack thereof.

Yan’s best course of action will be emulating the successes of Moreno. While Figueiredo dropped Moreno several times during their encounters, it appeared that the boxing and speed advantage played a factor in the man from Mexico winning the series 2-1-1. As Figueiredo aged, he slowed just a whisker, allowing Moreno to get the better of him when it mattered most. If Yan is able to buck off takedowns and keep a jab in Figueredo’s face, all while avoiding the worst of the looping strikes coming his way, he can cruise. It only takes one concussive blow from Figueiredo to equalize things, and he has 25 minutes to land it and change the game entirely. With the line what it is, Figueiredo has far more than a puncher’s chance. In fact, he has several legitimate paths to victory that make his selection a worthwhile one over +250.

Volkan Oezdemir (+195)

While similar wisdom applies to Oezdemir over Carlos Ulberg, there is a great deal of “fist go boop” logic that plays a factor. Both men have lights-out, one-hitter-quitter power that they have displayed inside the Octagon. It had been a while since Oezdemir shut Jimi Manuwa’s lights out to get a title shot, but plunking Johnny Walker in the midpoint of the first round in June served as a grim reminder of his capabilities. Ulberg may not present the same openings as Walker, but he is ready and willing to get into a slugfest, even if it might play to his disadvantage. Kennedy Nzechukwu sent him astral traveling, and “No Time” can unquestionably do the same.

One of the worst possible strategies of a fighter is to run at another, chin up in the air with one’s hands down. This is what Alonzo Menifield unexplainably did against Ulberg, and the City Kickboxing representative gave him the ol’ “Proper 12” with a brutal yet amusing 12-second drubbing. Oezdemir does not approach fights anywhere close to this recklessly, and he is far more defensively sound with a volume that allows him to stifle offense coming back his direction. If this primarily remains on the feet, it’s anyone’s game and a lot closer than a favored line of -235 indicates. One man could just as easily knock out the other, and it would not be a shock for Ulberg’s consciousness to be deprived instead of the Swiss fighter. “No Time” is as live an underdog as there is, and he has recent results to prove it.

Osman Diaz (+275)

It may have been back in 2018, but substantially favored Mingyang Zhang was knocked out by proven fraud Askar Mozharov. While there is no question that Mozharov was enhanced by vitamins permitted in China that would be barred by any commission worth its salt, getting his blocked knocked off by the Ukrainian will always be a black mark on his ledger. It is not the type that will prohibit Zhang from any future Prime Pick selections, but he will have to do some serious leveling up to get there. It might be more an indictment on Zhang than Diaz as to the plus-money play here, but this has the makings of a ludicrous slugfest for a few minutes, with one man getting dusted. It seems about as likely for Diaz to get plunked as Zhang, making this line another confusing one.

The last 10 fights for “Mountain Tiger” have all gone his way, winning all 10 within the first four minutes. It has mostly been due to a flurry of strikes, but the young man from China is fully capable of clubbing and subbing, as well. The technique has been far from polished, but he has been able to get away with it thanks to ultra-low-level talent like 1-2 Changsheng Huo, 5-8 and then 6-9 Caibao Zhang, as well as Huo one more time at 1-3. Brendson Ribeiro proved to be the perfect welcoming name for Zhang into the ranks of the UFC, as the Brazilian is a banger at heart and swung until he fell down. Diaz is of the same mold, only he has largely achieved this over superior opposition, on paper, to reach the Octagon. In a straight-up brawl like this, it’s a coinflip. That doesn’t merit a favorite at -350, even with that person in front of local fans.

DOUBLE PLAY (-201)

Xiaonan Yan-Tabatha Ricci Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-460)

Ming Shi-Xiaocan Feng Lasts Over 2.5 Rounds (-435)

With three favorites, this barking dog article should be anchored by something safer. In this case, it is a parlay of two extremely likely outcomes, both by historical trends and situational matchups. It is never to discredit female MMA fighters that their finish rates are low, and we do not have any interest broaching the conversation as to why that is. We just look to the numbers. In the 83 women’s matches in the UFC this year, just one ended by clean knockout—Cong Wang, who is the largest betting favorite on this billing. On the other side of the coin, a whopping 61 (73.5%) have heard the final bell, with only 11 (13.3%) bouts clocking in quicker than 1.5 rounds and 19 (22.9%) beneath this under of 2.5. In Yan’s 11-fight UFC run, two bouts have concluded before 2:30 of Round 3, while Ricci counters with two finishes in her eight UFC appearances. By those numbers, plus the overall propensity of strawweight bouts to last longer, this co-main is the anchor of this two-piece.

For this other women’s tilt, an all-China strawweight attraction, technically both ladies are making their UFC debuts. There is a bit of debate as to whether “Road to UFC” bouts count given their classification on Fight Finder, but they stack up more in line with Dana White’s Contender Series than actual promotional bouts. Traditionally, finishes dry up for fighters coming in from the regional circuit. When both fighters sport stoppage rates of 50% or lower when they reach the final stop on the MMA train, that tends to plummet as they quickly learn UFC fighters by and large have superior stats in most—if not all—areas than their feeder counterparts. Recoverability, durability and all-around technique comes up a step when getting this far. Shi has performed two finishes, a pair of submissions, in her last 10. The less-experienced 22-year-old would encompass almost her entire career if looking back 10 bouts, but recent performances show she may also struggle when getting over this hump. Barring Octagon jitters getting the better of one of these two with an adrenaline dump that spells their undoing, this preliminary encounter should take a while to get going and even longer to wrap up.